CFP Bracket Predictions: Ohio State Rises, Tennessee Soars, Alabama Drops Out
This past Saturday was a tough day for the SEC, as three of its playoff hopefuls fell, which ultimately favored teams in the ACC, as well as Indiana.
Indiana had a rollercoaster day, bouncing in and out of the playoff field just hours apart.
Now, let’s dive into my latest predictions for the College Football Playoff bracket.
Note: This is a forecast of the playoff structure I anticipate will unfold by selection Sunday on December 8, not what I believe Tuesday’s rankings will reveal.
1. Ohio State (Big Ten)
The Buckeyes are in peak form, having made quick work of Indiana, highlighting the stark difference between the best and worst playoff competitors. Ohio State can set up a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship by defeating Michigan. Either Ohio State or Oregon could take home the national title, but I’m leaning toward Ohio State after their impressive performance against Indiana. Last week’s prediction: No. 5.
2. Georgia (SEC)
Georgia’s quarterback Carson Beck has regained his form in the last two games. If he has indeed overcome his turnover issues, the Bulldogs are surely national title contenders. They are set to face either Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC championship, having already defeated the Longhorns, and the Aggies don’t pose much of a threat. Last week’s prediction: No. 9 seed.
3. SMU (ACC)
The Mustangs are on a nine-game winning streak after a decisive victory over Virginia. Coach Rhett Lashlee deserves kudos for making a quarterback switch in September. While many coaches would have stuck with veteran Preston Stone, Lashlee smartly recognized the potential of Kevin Jennings, a two-year backup. SMU is proving to be the most formidable team outside of the Big Ten and SEC. Last week’s prediction: Not in the bracket.
4. Boise State (Group of Five)
Securing a first-round bye for Boise State would be the perfect culmination of this unpredictable season. After navigating a close call against Wyoming, the Broncos should head into this week ranked above any Big 12 team. A win over Oregon State would strengthen Boise’s case for a bye. In this bracket format, being the fourth-best conference champion rather than the fifth could drastically affect their seeding, landing them anywhere from No. 4 to No. 12. Last week’s prediction: No. 12 seed.
5. Oregon (Big Ten)
Ranking Oregon here may seem unjust to the undefeated Ducks, but it reflects Ohio State’s strong performance and the difficulty of defeating the Buckeyes a second time, especially on neutral ground. Regardless of whether they are seeded No. 1 or No. 5, Oregon will certainly be a top contender for the national championship, although not getting a bye after a stellar regular season would be disappointing. Last week’s prediction: No. 1 seed.
6. Penn State (at-large)
While a win at home over Illinois remains Penn State’s standout victory, this season seems to hinge more on minimizing losses rather than securing marquee wins. A No. 6 seed could provide excellent positioning in the bracket. Penn State would have the advantage of resting during championship weekend and hosting one of the weaker playoff qualifiers in the first round, thus likely avoiding a matchup with a Big Ten or SEC team in the quarters. Last week’s prediction: No. 6 seed.
7. Notre Dame (at-large)
The surging Irish need to be cautious going into their game against Southern California this weekend. The Trojans have won two straight since changing quarterbacks and boast a strong home record of 4-1. USC’s only home loss was to Penn State, so if Notre Dame performs well, they could potentially overtake Penn State as long as the committee continues to excuse their earlier loss against Northern Illinois. Last week’s prediction: No. 7 seed.
8. Texas (at-large)
Texas has had one of the easier schedules in the SEC, but that is about to change. No other playoff contender will face a closing stretch as challenging as Texas. If they manage to overcome their rivalry with Texas A&M, they will face Georgia in the SEC championship. Texas is one of the most well-rounded playoff teams on both sides of the ball. Last week’s prediction: No. 10 seed.
9. Tennessee (at-large)
Thanks to Alabama and Mississippi’s losses, Tennessee’s outlook improved dramatically, going from being the first team outside the bracket to potentially hosting a first-round playoff game. This would be a significant advantage for the Volunteers, who thrive in home games. If Penn State or Notre Dame falter, it could elevate Tennessee into a home game position, provided they defeat Vanderbilt, which is expected.
Last week’s forecast: Not included in bracket.
10. Miami (at-large)
Miami’s defeat to Georgia Tech dampened Cam Ward’s Heisman Trophy aspirations, yet he continues to excel as one of the leading quarterbacks. Each time he plays, Miami has a shot at victory. Due to last weekend’s surprises, Miami may still have enough chances to make the playoffs as the ACC’s second-place team, but losing to Syracuse this Saturday would be detrimental. That game is going to be challenging.
Last week’s forecast: No. 3 seed.
11. Indiana (at-large)
Indiana appeared far from a playoff contender after a heavy loss to Ohio State. However, the fall of three SEC playoff hopefuls should keep the Hoosiers in contention. Indiana is set to face 10-loss Purdue in its regular-season finale, which presents an opportunity for a significant victory and could reassure the selection committee.
Last week’s forecast: No. 11 seed.
12. Brigham Young (Big 12)
BYU is on a two-game losing streak and requires losses from either Arizona State or Iowa State to make it to the Big 12 championship. Why still hold onto hope for the Cougars? They have the easiest matchup of any Big 12 contender this Saturday, facing a struggling Houston at home. BYU almost managed to mount a comeback against Arizona State on the road last week. The team that emerged after halftime in Tempe is one capable of winning the Big 12.
Last week’s forecast: Not included in bracket.
Dropping out of last week’s bracket forecast
∎ Alabama
∎ Mississippi
∎ Colorado
Reason my latest CFP bracket does not include Arizona State
Arizona State must defeat rival Arizona, who has significantly underperformed this season. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the Wildcats decided to end their tumultuous season on a high note by ruining their rival’s playoff chances? I anticipate that the Big 12 still has surprising twists ahead.
Reason my latest CFP bracket does not include Clemson
Winning against South Carolina this Saturday would put Clemson in a strong position for a playoff bid, depending on what happens elsewhere. Essentially, Clemson could qualify with a Tennessee loss to Vanderbilt or if Miami loses to Syracuse, allowing them a shot at the ACC championship.
Would I be surprised to see Clemson make the bracket? Not at all, but I just can’t seem to fit them in for now.