The Orange Bowl may well be decided by the first team to reach 20 points, which would secure a spot in the national championship game.

In the other College Football Playoff semifinal, both Ohio State and Texas have demonstrated a high-scoring prowess, racking up a total of 83 points and 78 points respectively, including a thrilling double-overtime victory for Texas against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.

In contrast, the clash between Penn State and Notre Dame promises to be a slower-paced affair, heavily influenced by the strength of both teams’ elite defenses.

Penn State’s defense has only allowed 24 points during this playoff season. Their remarkable performance against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl was highlighted by their ability to contain standout running back Ashton Jeanty, limiting him to a season-low 104 rushing yards. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions even scored two touchdowns during an impressive victory over SMU.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s defense was equally formidable, preventing Indiana from scoring until the game was nearly over and restricting Georgia to just 62 rushing yards with a meager 4.9 yards per play average.

Expect both defenses to play a crucial role in the Orange Bowl. Here are the pivotal elements that will likely decide which team moves on to compete for the national title:

Quarterback Showdown: Riley Leonard vs. Drew Allar

Both quarterbacks have had mediocre playoff performances to date. Leonard completed 23 out of 32 passes for 201 yards against Indiana but managed only 3.8 yards per attempt against Georgia, despite rushing for a team-best 80 yards in a 23-10 win. Allar has struggled with accuracy, completing 27 of 50 passes, yet he threw three touchdowns without any interceptions versus Boise State.

The Nittany Lions have proven their ability to win even when the passing game is faltering. However, turnovers could prove disastrous: Penn State’s record stands at 2-2 when Allar throws at least one interception, with the victories being by a narrow total of 10 points against Bowling Green and Southern California.

Notre Dame has faith in Leonard—the former Duke transfer has gained respect for his resilience, leadership, and understanding of the game plan—but their offense functions best when he allows the running game to take the forefront. The Fighting Irish average 30.3 points per game when they throw 30 or more passes, but they excel with an average of 39.9 points per game when attempting fewer than 30 passes.

Battle in the Trenches: Which Defense Prevails?

Penn State’s recent game against Boise State highlighted their standout run defense, which may well be the best in the Bowl Subdivision, though they have yet to face a challenge quite like Notre Dame’s offensive line.

Winning the battle on the line of scrimmage is likely to determine the outcome of the Orange Bowl.

Penn State has permitted 1,513 rushing yards on 492 attempts, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Five teams have rushed for over 100 yards against them, the highest being Southern California with 189 yards at 7.9 yards per carry, much of which came from a single 75-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. On the positive side, the Nittany Lions have kept five teams under 75 rushing yards.

On the other hand, Notre Dame has allowed 1,791 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry in one fewer game. Similar to Penn State, the Irish struggled against USC, giving up 197 yards and two touchdowns, and they also allowed 190 yards in a surprising loss to Northern Illinois.

Notre Dame’s statistics are somewhat skewed due to games against military academies: they conceded 222 yards to Navy and 207 yards to Army, although they emerged victoriously in both encounters by a combined score of 72 points. Additionally, the Irish limited the Black Knights to nearly 100 yards below their average rushing output.

Will Someone Step Up for a Big Play Downfield?

Both teams have struggled to create explosive passing plays this season.

Penn State ranks 86th nationally, with just 15 receptions of 30 yards or more and sits at 108th with only four receptions of 40 yards or more. Notre Dame fares even worse, ranked 130th with merely four passes of over 30 yards and tied for 126th with just one completion exceeding 40 yards.

However, the Irish compensate for their lack of downfield passing attack with a highly effective running game, ranking fourth in the nation with 11 runs of 40 yards or more and being among the few teams with a 90-yard rushing play.

In a matchup that is likely to hinge on the battle of the lines, securing one significant gain downfield could dramatically alter the dynamic of the Orange Bowl, compelling the defense to allocate more resources to the secondary and potentially opening up spaces closer to the line of scrimmage.