Four Downs and a Bracket: Clemson’s Path to the College Football Playoff is Closer than You Think
Let’s calm down and reset the conversation.
Before we start linking Dabo Swinney to the same turmoil as Billy Napier, let’s take a moment to breathe. Stay composed, folks.
First Down
Clemson isn’t as distant from the College Football Playoff as many perceive.
“We certainly took one on the chin,” Swinney remarked in his postgame press conference following another game where a Georgia opponent left beaten and bruised. “We didn’t play as we know we can in those last two quarters.”
This is crucial. Clemson went toe-to-toe with Georgia for two quarters, who, by the way, is incredibly competent in tackle football. Even though a 34-3 defeat stings, it indicates that not all hope is lost.
In fact, it shows Clemson is capable of defeating anyone in a somewhat shaky ACC — including Miami, especially after their recent triumph over Florida — if they maintain defensive pressure and see improvements from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who frankly has room for growth.
While pundits might criticize Swinney for not embracing the transfer portal, it’s essential to look beneath the surface. It’s tempting to get alarmed by a single game, but there’s promising depth to this squad.
The defensive line performed admirably, making it tough for Georgia in the first half. The run game is flourishing thanks to an improved offensive line, and players like tailback Phil Mafah, defensive tackle Peter Woods, and young wide receiver Antonio Williams show plenty of promise. Plus, the competition in the ACC isn’t very formidable aside from Miami.
Preseason favorites Florida State went down to Georgia Tech in Week 0, while playoff dark horse Virginia Tech fell to SEC team Vanderbilt, and North Carolina State barely managed to pull away from FCS opponent Western Carolina. So yes, Clemson’s worst loss in ten years was hard to digest.
But who on their schedule can match the physicality of the defense Clemson showcased, which held Georgia to just six points in the first half? That’s what should anchor Clemson moving forward, rather than debates over the transfer portal or whether Swinney should’ve recruited a transfer quarterback.
It’s clear that Klubnik struggled against the top team in the country in his season opener. But history has shown us that this isn’t a unique situation.
Bo Nix transferred from Auburn after the 2021 season and joined Oregon, working under new coach Dan Lanning, also a former Georgia assistant. In his first game with the Ducks against Georgia, held at the same location, he performed worse than Klubnik did in Georgia’s latest victory over Clemson.
Yet, he went on to lead the Ducks to ten wins, achieving the best season of his career. Securing ten wins will likely place Clemson in the playoffs, especially if they come out on top in the less competitive ACC and earn an automatic spot in the twelve-team playoff bracket.
“People will say whatever they want,” Swinney remarked referring to the growing critiques surrounding Clemson’s perceived decline from national prominence. “When you lose like this, they have every right to voice their opinions.”
Second Down
By now, you’re familiar with the statistics. If the 12-team playoff format had existed since it began in 2014, Penn State would have qualified for six tournaments.
However, that doesn’t carry much weight.
What is significant is the effect of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, particularly on the exceptionally gifted yet still-emerging quarterback Drew Allar and the prospects for Penn State’s first playoff appearance.
Don’t overlook Allar’s performance under challenging circumstances at West Virginia, competing against a traditional adversary fresh off a nine-win season, all amidst a raucous home crowd. Those were the types of games that challenged Allar during his debut season in 2023.
However, with Kotelnicki’s guidance, Allar delivered a nearly flawless game. He threw for 216 yards, scored three touchdowns, and averaged an impressive 12.7 yards per attempt. This higher yards-per-attempt figure is notable since Penn State struggled last season with generating big pass plays.
Kansas, where Kotelnicki served in 2023, excelled in this department. Against West Virginia, Allar completed passes of 55, 50, 20, and 19 yards, successfully expanding the field for an offense that had grown monotonous last season.
Last year, Allar averaged a lowly 6.8 yards per attempt, which he nearly doubled on Saturday against a defense that adopted the same strategy many Penn State opponents did last year: bringing safeties up to stifle the run, and maintaining man coverage with little regard for deep throws.
This time, Allar punished the defense for those choices. The next big step is replicating this success against Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten as they pursue the playoff.
Third Down
To begin with, it was essentially a practice game against FCS team Chattanooga. However, it was an impressive showcase marking the initiation of Nico Iamaleava’s first season.
As a newcomer at Tennessee.
The best way to characterize Iamaleava’s impressive stats (314 passing yards, three touchdowns, 11.2 yards per attempt) might be to compare his performance. He showed resemblance to Hendon Hooker and far less to Joe Milton.
In simpler terms, this meant more accurate long throws and fewer passes to the sidelines.
“(Iamaleava) appeared very relaxed and commanding,” said the NFL scout. “It’s evident he grasps pass game strategies, and he throws the ball with ease. Watching (Tennessee) last season was awkward because the quarterback wasn’t suitable for the system.”
We’ll soon see how different the Volunteers are at quarterback with this former five-star player from California when Tennessee faces NC State next week in Charlotte. NC State’s defense, which had a rough outing despite winning against Western Carolina, will prove to be a formidable challenge thanks to defensive coordinator Tony Gibson and his complex pressure strategies.
Fourth Down
The standout team of Week 1 is Notre Dame, primarily because they successfully navigated what is likely their toughest road challenge of the season right at the beginning.
How manageable is the rest of the schedule? Notre Dame only has two additional true away games.
If those upcoming matches (against Purdue and Southern California) mirror the toughness and determination the Irish displayed in their 23-13 win over Texas A&M, Notre Dame might end the season undefeated. This is especially true considering the developing skills of Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard, who played with an inexperienced offensive line that collectively had just six career starts—alongside facing his former coach (Mike Elko), who was aware of his strengths and weaknesses, yet he played wisely and avoided mistakes.
The Irish accumulated 198 rushing yards despite a makeshift offensive line affected by injuries during fall camp, while Leonard contributed 158 yards through the air and rushed for 63. During the game-winning drive, Leonard carried the ball twice for 20 yards and made two completions for 29 yards.
This was an essential early victory and a significant team-building moment.
The Bracket
Here’s a prediction of a 12-team Playoff bracket if the season concluded today:
1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
3. Miami (ACC champion)
4. Oklahoma State (Big 12 champion).
No. 12 Liberty faces No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 Missouri takes on No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Notre Dame battles No. 7 Penn State
No. 9 Utah competes against No. 8 Texas