Heat waves, droughts, and wildfires are increasingly straining the electric grid in the Western United States. Recent research indicates that by better managing electricity resources collectively across the region, the risk of power outages could be significantly lowered, while also hastening the shift towards clean energy.
The heat waves experienced in the West this summer evoke memories of recent years, marked by rotating power outages and unprecedented electricity usage. A study conducted by the Climate and Energy Policy Program at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment suggests that if utilities in the region expanded their collaboration on electricity sharing, it could potentially decrease outage risks by up to 40%. Furthermore, this change could foster public support and favorable policies for the expansion of renewable energy sources. This research is particularly relevant amidst discussions about initiatives like the West-Wide Governance Pathways Initiative, aimed at creating a collaborative multi-state grid operations and planning entity.
“Extreme weather events don’t adhere to state lines or the boundaries of electric utilities, and neither should the solutions we develop to alleviate their impacts,” remarked Mareldi Ahumada-Paras, a study co-author and postdoctoral scholar in energy science and engineering at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “Increased regional collaboration can enhance reliability during widespread stressful conditions.”
The new abnormal
Electricity providers across the West are confronting three emerging challenges. The unpredictability of energy demand and resource availability is escalating due to more frequent weather extremes, the increased prevalence of rooftop solar installations, and the rapid rise of renewable energy sources. The growth of wind, solar, and energy storage options necessitates innovative strategies for both operating and planning to accommodate demand. Additionally, the varied state and federal clean energy objectives create a complicated mosaic of incentives affecting how utilities operate and plan.
“New management strategies for the grid can harness the opportunities presented by our swiftly evolving electricity landscape and tackle the rising stresses caused by extreme heat, drought, and other climate-related issues,” stated Michael Mastrandrea, another co-author and research director at the Climate and Energy Policy Program.
The research investigates the power grid extending from the West Coast to the Great Plains and from western Canada to Baja California. In recent years, extreme heat and severe droughts have considerably stressed the grid and diminished the availability of hydropower.
Using power system optimization models, the researchers simulated grid operations under stress scenarios similar to those faced during a California heat wave in 2022, which saw record high energy demand. Their findings revealed that fostering collaboration could potentially reduce power outage risks by 40%, cut unserved energy—when demand surpasses supply—by over half, and enhance reliability.
Policy and public opinion
The researchers describe these estimates as “illustrative and directional” due to the challenges of gaining complete information, which complicates precise modeling of how those responsible for maintaining power system reliability within specific service areas will react under stressful conditions. Nonetheless, the findings underscore how expanded utility collaboration can improve local responses to shortages and surpluses, provide greater flexibility in managing unforeseen disruptions, and ensure a stable electricity supply during extreme weather.
According to the researchers, greater cooperation among utilities could also enhance the benefits of the region’s expanding renewable energy sources. As renewable energy generation (like wind and solar) is inconsistent—since the wind doesn’t blow constantly and sunlight is available only during certain hours—wider collaboration can facilitate the use or storage of renewable energy when it is accessible. Detractors of these energy sources may blame them for significant power outages, a perception that could negatively influence public opinion and prompt policies that hinder the ramp-up or growth of clean energy technologies.
“Our research illustrates that enhanced cooperation goes beyond financial implications for utilities and their customers,” stated Michael Wara, one of the study’s co-authors and director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “It’s about ensuring electricity availability as we tackle the challenges posed by the energy transition and the escalating effects of climate change.”
Both Wara and Mastrandrea hold senior director and director roles, respectively, at the Sustainability Accelerator within the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
