On Sunday, intense aerial assaults were exchanged between the Israeli military and Iran-supported Hezbollah militants, resulting in escalating violence along the border between Israel and Lebanon.

Reports confirmed three casualties in Lebanon. Israel reported one of its navy personnel was killed, with two others injured. This surge in attacks coincided with negotiations in Cairo aimed at establishing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, the latter being backed by Iran, amidst rising fears that the conflict in Gaza could spread to Lebanon and further destabilize the region.

Nonetheless, both Israel and Hezbollah expressed a lack of interest in escalating into an all-out war in Lebanon, and some analysts suggested that the significant exchanges of fire on Sunday could, in fact, help diminish short-term tensions.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, stated the strikes were in retaliation for the killing of high-ranking Hezbollah member Fuad Shukr, which occurred on July 30. He claimed that his forces launched 340 Katyusha rockets to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, although U.S. officials indicated the actual number of rockets involved was much lower.

Nasrallah mentioned that acting hastily might have led to a larger conflict but emphasized that they chose to wait, allowing for potential fruitful negotiations regarding Gaza.

Israel reacted by launching over 100 jets to target Hezbollah locations and ward off any further attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cautioned both Nasrallah and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declaring that the military actions taken that day were a pivotal move in altering the dynamics along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

“Israel is striking Hezbollah with unexpected and decisive force,” Netanyahu remarked. “Just three weeks ago, we eliminated their chief of staff (Shukr). Today, we disrupted their assault strategy.”

In response, Nasrallah criticized Israel’s portrayal of the day’s events, labeling their claims as “filled with falsehoods” that reveal their perception of being the strongest military in the region. He argued that their reliance on deceit indicates their weakening position.

Updates:

∎ Videos shared online showed Israeli missiles being fired to intercept the incoming projectiles.

∎ Authorities implemented restrictions for residents from Tel Aviv to the Lebanese border, limiting outdoor gatherings to 30 people and indoor gatherings to 300. Additionally, beaches near the border were closed.

Will the Conflict Ease or Escalate?

Avi Melamed, a former intelligence official and regional analyst, indicated that the careful communication from both sides following the recent clashes is likely to promote relative calm and could help end the looming threat of retaliatory strikes that might escalate into a full war in Lebanon. He mentioned that Hezbollah’s response would probably have had approval from Iran.

“Hezbollah’s response did not meet the expectations of its backers,” Melamed explained in an email to YSL News. “Above all, this response signals to Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar that the broader regional conflict he may have hoped for is unlikely to materialize.”

Melamed added that it’s likely that Israel informed the U.S. beforehand about its preemptive strikes. Reports from Israel’s Channel 2 confirmed that the U.S. was aware. Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who served as national security adviser under former President Donald Trump, praised the Israeli actions, asserting they likely prevented Hezbollah from launching a large missile attack on Israel.

“What Israel has effectively done is reset the deterrent balance in the region, and I believe this is a strategic move,” Kellogg stated during a segment on Fox News Sunday. “I think it has put Hezbollah in a weak position.”

Furthermore, Kellogg pointed out that Iran did not take any action during the escalated violence, suggesting a lack of imminent responses. A current U.S. official, who requested anonymity, confirmed to YSL News that there were no signs pointing to a potential Iranian strike against Israel, despite Iran’s previous threats to retaliate for the purported killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Discrepancies in Rocket Count

Hezbollah claimed to have targeted 11 military installations, marking their retaliation’s initial phase. A representative from Hezbollah conveyed to Reuters that their response was designed to avoid provoking a widespread war.

An Israeli military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, reported that over 100 Israeli aircraft struck targets throughout southern Lebanon.

“Our defense mechanisms, including naval ships and Air Force aircraft, are safeguarding our airspace, pinpointing and intercepting threats, and responding to any threats from Hezbollah across Lebanon,” he stated.

US Remains Firm in Supporting Israel

The Pentagon has strengthened its military presence in the Middle East recently, responding to threats from Iran and its allied forces, like Hezbollah, against Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III communicated with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant regarding Israel’s preparations for potential Hezbollah aggressions. Austin assured that the United States remains steadfastly committed to defending Israel from any attacks initiated by Iran and its regional affiliates, as stated by Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is being kept in the loop about the situation by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, according to the White House.

Gloomy prospects for a cease-fire in Gaza as discussions proceed

Discussions in Cairo are currently focusing on a cease-fire proposal put forth by the Biden administration, which had previously sparked optimism among mediators for a potential agreement. However, Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, expresses doubt.

“The proposal for a cease-fire seems more like a diplomatic gesture than a solid plan,” Kamrava shared in an email to YSL News, suggesting that the Biden administration’s motivation for seeking a cease-fire is less about concern for the Palestinian situation and more influenced by domestic political factors.”

Iran preparing for conflict with Israel: Retaliation for assassination of Hamas leader in Tehran

Israel emphasizes desire to avoid large-scale war in Lebanon

Anticipations of escalating tensions grew following a missile strike in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights last month that resulted in the deaths of 12 young individuals, along with the assassination of Shukr in Beirut afterward. Israel’s security Cabinet convened early Sunday, where Gallant announced a state of emergency.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel would react to evolving conditions but reiterated that it did not aim for comprehensive war in Lebanon. Due to the surge in violence, tens of thousands of Israeli residents have been evacuated from the area bordering Lebanon for several months.

“We are resolute in our efforts to protect our nation, bring back residents from the north safely, and uphold a fundamental principle: Anyone who attacks us will be met with retaliation,” Netanyahu stated.

Flight operations disrupted as tensions escalate

Operations at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv experienced a halt for about 90 minutes. Flights connecting to and from Beirut were also suspended, leaving passengers stranded. “I just want to leave this place by any means necessary,” expressed Rana Saade, a Lebanese expatriate from New Jersey.

Contributors: Tom Vanden Brook, Francesca Chambers, YSL News; Reuters