Forget fantasy football, betting heats up on what Harris and Trump will say at debate
Prepare to hear mentions of “border,” “abortion,” and “inflation” when Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off in their first debate on Tuesday in Philadelphia. This anticipation comes from insights from offshore bookmakers.
The debate is scheduled for Tuesday, Sept. 10, at 9 p.m. EDT, and YSL News Network will broadcast The ABC News Presidential Debate Simulcast on the YSL News channel, which is accessible on most smart TVs and devices.
This event bears resemblance to a high-stakes game of debate bingo, with more than $2 million in bets placed on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting platform, focusing on what the candidates might say.
As of 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, bets indicate an 89% likelihood that Trump will reference “Israel” and a 91% chance that Harris will mention “abortion,” according to Polymarket’s data.
Most and least likely words and phrases Trump and Harris might say
A significant number of the words that gamblers can bet on align with previous speeches from the candidates, such as “China,” “Project 2025,” and “democracy.” However, some unexpected options like “Epstein,” “DEI,” and “crypto/bitcoin” haven’t attracted much interest.
Interestingly, the betting patterns have shown shifts regarding what words are deemed more or less likely to be spoken since Polymarket began these bets on September 4.
However, bettors seem to have more confidence in the words Trump is likely to use. Among his list of 17 possible words or phrases, only three have shifted by 14 points or more. In contrast, in the last five days, seven of the 18 words that Harris may use have changed significantly. Notably, “liar” has decreased by 26%, while “convicted felon” has increased by 23%.
Significant shifts in words Trump and Harris might use during the debate
The predictions for the debate are only a small portion of the overall betting on Polymarket related to the 2024 U.S. general election. The platform reports it has received more than $847 million in total bets on who will win the presidency. As the debate unfolds, this amount is likely to grow as bettors listen to what the candidates say on Tuesday evening.
How reliable have election odds been in previous presidential elections?
Since 1866, the betting favorite has lost only twice, according to a nonprofit news group, the Conversation.
The two exceptions were in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman overcame 8-to-1 odds to win against Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump beat the odds of 7-to-2 against Hillary Clinton.
Contributed by: James Powel