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HomeBusinessEuphoria in Financial Circles as Trump Makes a Comeback to the Presidency

Euphoria in Financial Circles as Trump Makes a Comeback to the Presidency

 

Markets optimistic as Trump returns to the White House


NEW YORK – Investors greeted Donald Trump’s second inauguration with optimism about a pro-business approach, although they expressed caution regarding his protectionist trade policies, especially his views on tariffs.

 

As Trump delivered his speech, stock futures experienced an uptick, with futures for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by approximately 0.4% to 0.5%.

In the lead-up to the inauguration, the dollar showed some weakness as the Trump-led administration indicated that no new tariffs would be enacted on the president’s inaugural day.

“While we anticipate continued volatility in the near term, we ultimately foresee that his first year will align with an upward trend in both the US dollar and US equities,” noted James Reilly, a senior economist at Capital Economics.

 

Trump steps into his role with a robust agenda that includes trade reform, immigration enforcement, tax reductions, and deregulating the cryptocurrency sector. Investment managers are revising their portfolios across various asset classes and keenly observing his inaugural address for any indicators that might provoke immediate market reactions.

“Uncertainty remains prevalent, as all eyes are on whether tariffs will become a reality or just a bargaining tactic right from the start,” emphasized Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA Research, prior to the inauguration.

 

Nevertheless, some are optimistic about a relatively subdued reaction to the new president’s early messages and actions.

 

“The initial Trump response might be more bark than bite,” suggested Michael Arone, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors, noting that the true timing and effects of Trump’s major policy changes are likely to evolve over a longer timeline.

 

However, there is a risk that Trump’s tariff initiatives could heighten inflation concerns, putting pressure on bond and stock markets. Furthermore, stricter immigration policies may also have repercussions in these areas. Efforts to lighten regulations have positively impacted bank stocks and resulted in significant gains for cryptocurrencies.

 

As Wall Street executives reported robust profits, they reassured investors that the incoming U.S. administration would favor business and benefit the banking sector.

 

“Investors have shown excitement about the possible relaxation of regulations and the anticipated decrease in corporate and business income taxes,” added Stovall.

Post-election, the S&P 500’s rally has moderated to a 2.7% increase, following a drop in early January due to inflation worries.

 

Trump is set to launch his presidency with a series of executive orders focusing on critical policy areas, including immigration and energy. He provided a preview of these during his speech, where he promised a national energy emergency declaration, urgent energy exploration and development initiatives, and the introduction of tariffs.

“We will tariff and tax foreign nations to benefit our own citizens,” Trump stated.

The president also mentioned the establishment of an “External Revenue Service” to manage the collection of tariffs from foreign trade partners.

The cryptocurrency sector is hopeful that Trump will keep his “crypto president” campaign commitments, which include creating a federal bitcoin reserve, improving bank access, and forming a crypto council, according to previous reports from Reuters.

During Trump’s speech, bitcoin’s price saw a slight decrease, dropping to $102,756 from a peak of over $107,000 earlier that night. The president did not address cryptocurrency specifically in his inaugural speech.

 

In the initial year of Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 experienced a notable 19.4% rise, following a 5% increase within his first 100 days in office. Overall, during Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 surged nearly 68%, though markets experienced fluctuations primarily due to a trade conflict with China.

At the conclusion of Trump’s last inaugural address in January 2017, the S&P 500 had increased by 0.3% that day. The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so the market’s response may not become clear until Tuesday.