Last January, we shared our very early Top 25 predictions for the 2024 college football season during a brief pause between two significant events: Michigan’s victory over Washington in the national championship and Nick Saban’s retirement at Alabama.

This context explains why we placed Alabama at No. 2 in our initial forecast. After all, who would bet against the finest coach in college football? Also, the defending national champions had not yet witnessed former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh officially leave for the Los Angeles Chargers, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy was just days away from entering the NFL draft. Consequently, we placed the Wolverines at No. 3, which was a reasonable choice.

At least we have valid reasons for those two miscalculations. Upon reflecting on last year’s early predictions, we can see significant misjudgments — from our overly optimistic views on teams like LSU, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech to our undervaluation of the Big Ten overall.

Our early Top 25 for the 2025 season will come out following Monday night’s championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State. But first, let’s review last year’s predictions to see where we were accurate, where we were off, and where we were way off:

Nailed It!

No. 4 Texas (13-3)

Texas is projected to be around this ranking in the final US LBM Coaches Poll, as they secured second place in the SEC and won two College Football Playoff games before falling to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. While Texas navigated a relatively light schedule, they successfully reached the national semifinals for the second consecutive year.

No. 11 Clemson (10-4)

Clemson clinched the ACC title, as we had anticipated, despite losing to Texas in the playoff’s opening round. The Tigers had a rocky season, being decisively defeated by Georgia in their season opener and enduring a significant loss at home to Louisville. Nevertheless, they seized the opportunity to advance to the conference title game when Miami lost to Syracuse in Week 14, subsequently defeating SMU.

No. 23 Memphis (11-2)

While Memphis may not have emerged as the top Group of Five team—Boise State wasn’t ranked in our predictions—they will likely finish around this position in the Coaches Poll after concluding the season with victories over Tulane and West Virginia.

Not Too Bad, Honestly

No. 1 Georgia (11-3)

Georgia didn’t reclaim the national title nor secure a playoff win, wrapping up the season with a loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. However, the Bulldogs did win the SEC, defeating Texas twice, and could have advanced further in the playoffs if not for the season-ending injury to starting quarterback Carson Beck in the conference championship.

No. 6 Notre Dame (14-1*)

We were mostly spot on about the Fighting Irish, noting that the offseason hires of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and quarterback Riley Leonard “positioned the Fighting Irish as playoff contenders.” They suffered a surprising loss to Northern Illinois but went on an undefeated streak and are now just one win away from their first title since 1988.

No. 7 Oregon (13-1)

On the bright side: Oregon was anticipated to place second in the Big Ten, just behind Michigan. They completed the regular season as the sole unbeaten team in the Bowl Subdivision. Unfortunately, we underestimated how formidable both Oregon and the league would be in 2024, putting the eventual Big Ten champion at No. 7.

No. 12 Tennessee (10-3)

This ranking is relatively close to where the Volunteers ended up. However, we placed them as the seventh-best team in the SEC, which was a clear miscalculation. Tennessee triumphed over Alabama and made the playoffs but failed to leave a mark against Ohio State.

No. 14 Missouri (10-3)

Our optimism for Missouri was a bit overzealous. The Tigers’ only victory against a Power Four opponent with more than seven wins came against Iowa in the Music City Bowl. They narrowly escaped with wins against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and Oklahoma at home, totaling a double-digit win tally.

Close, but Still Off the Mark

No. 5 Mississippi (10-3)

Unfortunate losses to Kentucky and Florida hindered the Rebels from securing a playoff spot and a chance for their first top-five finish in over six decades. However, this team had the potential to be the best in the SEC at its peak, though that peak was too infrequent.

No. 9 Ohio State (14-2*)

We significantly undervalued both the Buckeyes and Penn State, reflected in our overall oversights regarding the Big Ten. Despite finishing the regular season ranked No. 7 in the Coaches Poll, Ohio State completed an impressive journey to Monday’s championship game.

No. 15 Penn State (13-3)

Our prediction for the Nittany Lions was about ten spots off. We speculated that “if everything aligns perfectly, Penn State could either win the Big Ten or secure an at-large playoff bid,” while questioning the health of their offensive line and the progress of quarterback Drew Allar under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.

No. 24 Iowa (8-5)

Iowa won’t be in the Top 25 after losing to Missouri in the bowl game. However, they narrowly lost to Iowa State and UCLA, indicating they were close to validating this ranking and even being part of the at-large playoff discussion.

We Have Excuses

No. 2 Alabama (9-4)

Alabama dropped in the SEC standings under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Their season was marred by defeats to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma during the regular season, followed by a loss to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

No. 3 Michigan (8-5)

The departure of Harbaugh, McCarthy, and several key players following the championship game severely impacted Michigan’s prospects under new coach Sherrone Moore. Nevertheless, the Wolverines ended the season on a high note with victories over Ohio State and Alabama, potentially finishing close to the Top 25.

No. 17 Washington (6-7)

Given the significant talent loss after the defeat to Michigan, we should have been much more skeptical about Washington’s prospects as a new member of the Big Ten. To be fair, DeBoer was expected to return as head coach in 2024. We noted, “based on his history, it seems very unlikely that Washington will fall off the national radar.”

No. 22 Kansas (5-7)

Kansas was one of nine teams in our early Top 25 to finish with a losing record. They faced five narrow losses and managed to secure three consecutive victories against ranked opponents in November, indicating they were not far from being the team we envisioned last January.

What Were We Thinking?

No. 8 Oklahoma (6-7)

Things took a turn for the worse for Oklahoma this season. We emphasized that the performance of quarterback Jackson Arnold and the offensive line would be crucial for the team’s playoff chances. Unfortunately, neither lived up to expectations, leading to a dismal offensive showing. Watching Texas thrive in the SEC only added to the disappointment. The lone bright spot was a victory over Alabama, which helped the Sooners maintain their streak of 26 consecutive bowl appearances, but this was followed by a significant defeat to Navy.

No. 10 LSU (9-4)

LSU was expected to be a strong contender in coach Brian Kelly’s third year, with Garrett Nussmeier stepping in for Jayden Daniels at quarterback. However, the season didn’t start well, as they lost to Southern California in the opener and subsequently suffered three consecutive losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, and Florida, which led to their elimination from the playoff race.

No. 16 Utah (5-7)

Injuries were a significant factor for Utah, particularly at quarterback, as they awaited Cam Rising’s recovery, which ultimately did not happen. After a promising 4-0 start, the Utes faced a tough stretch, losing seven straight games and finishing the year tied for second-to-last place in the Big 12. This marked the first losing season for the program since 2013.

No. 19 Southern California (7-6)

USC struggled to find their footing as new members of the Big Ten, managing to barely qualify for the postseason after suffering narrow losses to teams like Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington. We aim to rethink our previous overrating of the Trojans in our early predictions for 2025.

No. 21 North Carolina State (6-7)

While overshadowed by other disappointing teams in the ACC such as Florida State, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, N.C. State should be recognized among the biggest letdowns in the Power Four. Dealing with injuries, the Wolfpack endured a heavy loss to Tennessee early in the season and suffered four defeats by just a single point.

No. 25 Virginia Tech (6-7)

The anticipated turnaround for the program did not materialize. However, the Hokies managed to stay competitive in every game, with the only loss by a margin greater than 10 points coming in the Mayo Bowl against Minnesota.

We really messed up

No. 13 Arizona (4-8)

Coach Jedd Fisch eventually took over from DeBoer at Washington, but at the beginning of the season, Arizona was considered a top contender in the revamped Big 12. While coaching changes and player departures affected performance, our initial assessment of the Wildcats was clearly misguided.

No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-9)

Oklahoma State had an undefeated run in non-conference games but failed to secure another victory, finishing last in the Big 12. This disappointing result almost led to the end of coach Mike Gundy’s era. It’s unlikely the Cowboys will receive much favorable treatment in the future.

Florida State division

No. 18 Florida State (2-10)

The Seminoles stand out on their own this season. Do we get any recognition for placing them at No. 18, which is lower than many other early predictions? Not really. Florida State will be remembered not just as the biggest disappointment of the 2024 season, but as one of the largest failures in recent history.