This upcoming Tuesday should be a relatively straightforward session for the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Although Tennessee and Brigham Young will slide down the rankings following their losses over the weekend, the top five playoff teams are likely to remain unchanged. In the meantime, three SEC teams are expected to ascend the ranks to fill the void left by the Volunteers and Cougars.

Nevertheless, there are still some lingering uncertainties as we approach Tuesday evening. One key point of discussion will be how the committee evaluates the Big 12. How far will BYU drop? Will the highest-ranked Big 12 team place higher than Boise State, and what implications does that have for the bye awarded to the top four conference champions in the Bowl Subdivision?

Another consideration is Tennessee’s position among the two-loss SEC teams. Expect the Volunteers to be ranked towards the bottom of the order, behind Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, despite having previously beaten Alabama. This scenario reflects the challenging road that lies ahead for Tennessee in securing an at-large bid.

Additionally, it’s essential to think about how many SEC teams make the rankings. With numerous SEC teams vying for at-large invitations, the committee will likely emphasize signature victories against ranked opponents in differentiating between teams with similar records.

These concerns, among others, are prominent as we look forward to Tuesday evening’s decisions:

What about Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia?

All three schools should rise two spots compared to last week. However, Georgia’s recent victory might cause the committee to rethink the head-to-head outcomes that influenced last Tuesday’s rankings. An additional point favoring Georgia is its rigorous schedule, possibly the toughest of any playoff contender. Yet, altering rankings could disregard the fact that Mississippi convincingly defeated Georgia two weeks ago. The SEC will likely be ranked as follows: No. 3 Texas, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Georgia, and No. 10 Mississippi.

Will Brigham Young be ranked below Boise State?

That seems highly likely. After sitting at No. 6 last Tuesday, the Cougars are expected to drop to at least No. 13, one slot or more behind Boise State, following a 17-13 loss to Kansas. This significant drop can be attributed to two main factors: first, BYU’s schedule includes only three victories against bowl teams. One of those wins, against Kansas State, has diminished in value considering the Wildcats’ struggles in November. Second, BYU’s close games against Oklahoma State and Utah, both at the bottom of the conference standings, raise questions about their dominance.

Does this suggest a first-round bye for Boise?

As of Tuesday night, it could appear that way, but maintaining that fourth position among FBS conference champions presents challenges. Boise State’s main issue is the lack of opportunities for another significant win before the regular season concludes. The Broncos are set to face Wyoming and Oregon State this month and are expected to meet Colorado State for the Mountain West title. Securing a match against UNLV instead of the Rams would be beneficial, but it may not be sufficient to surpass the Big 12 champion, especially if that champion turns out to be BYU or Colorado.

Is the Big 12 heading toward a one-bid situation?

Unless there’s unexpected upheaval within the Big Ten and SEC, it seems the Big 12 champion will be the only team from the conference to enter the playoffs. With the Wildcats and Iowa State falling out of contention, this was likely the scenario even if BYU had achieved an undefeated season; their loss to Kansas solidifies that the conference championship will be a winner-takes-all affair. Should the Cougars win this weekend against Arizona State, they’ll secure a spot in the title game. Colorado must also emerge victorious against KU before facing Oklahoma State.

How many SEC teams will be included?

The number will definitely be at least one less than the nine ranked last week, following LSU’s loss to Florida. The count could drop to seven if the committee decides to remove Missouri, which was ranked No. 23 last Tuesday but narrowly lost to South Carolina. However, such a competitive narrow loss to a ranked team frequently doesn’t result in a drastic drop, so Missouri is likely to maintain a ranking close to last week’s. The insufficient pool of replacement teams from the other Power Four conferences also aids Missouri’s chances of staying put.

The most probable scenario is that there will be eight SEC teams in the rankings, arranged as follows: Longhorns, Tide, Bulldogs, Rebels, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Gamecocks, and Missouri.