Following a surprising home defeat to Michigan, Ohio State is expected to fall between four to six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night.

The argument for Ohio State only dropping to No. 6 is bolstered by their victories against Penn State and Indiana, both of which are likely top 10 teams. Few can match the caliber of these wins: Oregon triumphed over Boise State and Ohio State, while Georgia has victories over Clemson, Texas, and Tennessee.

At the very least, Ohio State has secured a playoff spot and is likely to host their first-round opponent.

A key detail to monitor on Tuesday night is whether the Buckeyes land at No. 8, potentially trailing Tennessee and SMU. If this happens, Ohio State may have to play away in the opening playoff round if SMU secures the ACC title and Boise State loses the Mountain West championship. This scenario would allow the Pac-12 champion to break into the top four, pushing the Buckeyes down to the No. 9 seed.

Here’s how the top 10 of the upcoming playoff rankings will likely appear:

1. Oregon (12-0)

Oregon’s 12-0 record, following a victory over Washington, guarantees them a top-five finish in the final rankings. If they lose to Penn State in the Big Ten title game, the Nittany Lions could rise to No. 2 or even No. 1, while Oregon would stand as the highest-ranked at-large team. They would face the Pac-12 champion or Clemson in the first round, with a possible rematch against Boise State in the quarterfinals.

2. Texas (11-1)

Texas secured a 17-7 win over Texas A&M despite a messy second half, solidifying their playoff spot regardless of the outcome against Georgia in the SEC championship. If they beat the Bulldogs and avenge their earlier loss, Texas could emerge as a frontrunner for the championship.

3. Penn State (11-1)

While Illinois remains Penn State’s only ranked victory, they’ve compensated with wins against six bowl-eligible teams, including impressively defeating West Virginia, Southern California, and Minnesota on the road. The road win over the Gophers stands out as a more substantial achievement than their victory over Illinois.

4. Notre Dame (11-1)

The Fighting Irish have embarked on a remarkable 10-game winning streak since their loss to Northern Illinois in September, representing the best phase of coach Marcus Freeman’s career. Notably, the only close game in this run was a 31-24 victory against Louisville.

5. Georgia (10-2)

The dramatic eight-overtime triumph over Georgia Tech was vital for multiple reasons, especially for claiming bragging rights. A loss to the Yellow Jackets would have forced Georgia to defeat Texas to qualify for the playoffs; without that win, they would likely have finished outside the top 12.

6. Ohio State (10-2)

The selection committee may rank the Buckeyes ahead of Tennessee due to their strong wins over Indiana and Penn State, which overshadow the Volunteers’ best wins against Alabama and Florida. Additionally, Ohio State’s losses to Oregon and Michigan could be viewed more favorably than Tennessee’s losses to Georgia and Arkansas.

7. Tennessee (10-2)

This is likely the lowest ranking for the Volunteers, as they should maintain ground against SMU after both teams concluded November with wins over 6-6 squads. However, if the Buckeyes rank higher, Tennessee’s chances of hosting a first-round game diminish considerably.

8. SMU (11-1)

Despite no guarantees, SMU could still earn an at-large playoff berth even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC championship. Given the collapse of the SEC’s second tier in November, SMU has a strong chance to qualify. They have six victories over bowl-eligible opponents, highlighted by wins against TCU, Louisville, and Duke.

9. Indiana (11-1)

Indiana’s impressive 66-0 victory over Purdue capped off an outstanding regular season, cementing their spot as an at-large team. Like SMU, Indiana’s ability to qualify despite a modest strength of schedule benefited from the downfall of teams like Alabama and Mississippi from the playoff race.

10. Boise State (11-1)

Boise State has already achieved 11 wins for the first time since 2019 and could potentially win more than 12 games for the first time since 2009. By winning against UNLV to clinch the Mountain West title, the Broncos will secure a top-four seed and earn a bye into the quarterfinals.