By Max A. Cherney

According to Google’s leader in quantum computing, the company plans to launch commercial quantum computing applications in the next five years, a statement made to Reuters on Wednesday. This assertion contradicts Nvidia’s forecast which suggests a 20-year wait for such developments.

Hartmut Neven, founder and leader of Google Quantum AI, expressed optimism saying, “We believe that within five years, we will witness real-world applications that can only be enabled through quantum computers.”

The real-world applications mentioned by Google involve fields like materials science, which could lead to the development of advanced batteries for electric vehicles, new pharmaceuticals, and possibly innovative energy solutions.

This announcement from Google comes amid a backdrop of uncertainty regarding when significant advancements in quantum computing will occur. Views among investors and experts vary widely, estimating a timeline that ranges from a few years to at least two decades.

For many years, scientists have been engaged in discussions about quantum computing, which promises to bring forth machines that could outperform traditional computers by thousands of times. Unlike conventional computers that process information bit by bit, quantum computers utilize “qubits,” which allow them to handle multiple values simultaneously.

Both government bodies and corporations are keenly watching the potential impact of quantum computing on modern cybersecurity and other areas, including finance and healthcare.

Similar to artificial intelligence, quantum computing was largely discussed among scientists until recent breakthroughs. Before the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022, advancements in AI were being made in silence, and there was no clear indication of when AI would become practically useful.

A twenty-year horizon

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has expressed that quantum computing developments are not as near as a five-year timeframe. During an analyst event at CES in Las Vegas in January, he predicted that practical applications for quantum computers are around 20 years away.

Huang stated, “If you suggest 15 years, that might be considered optimistic. If you lean towards 30 years, that would seem too far off. However, if you go with 20 years, I believe a lot of people would agree with that.”

His statements led to a decrease of approximately $8 billion in market value for several quantum computing companies. The sector saw an uptick in December when Google revealed it had tackled a significant challenge in quantum computing with its innovative chips.

Since 2012, Google has been actively developing its quantum computing program, designing and constructing several quantum chips. The company claims it has solved a computational problem in just minutes that would take a traditional computer longer than the age of the universe to complete.

On Wednesday, Google’s quantum computing research team announced further progress towards achieving real-world applications within five years.

They published a new study in the scientific journal Nature, detailing a novel approach to quantum simulation, which is a significant milestone towards Google’s goal.

Reporting by Max A. Cherney in San Francisco. Editing by Gerry Doyle