A new research project indicates that climate change could lead to substantial droughts in numerous parts of Canada by the close of the century. To address this issue, scientists have developed a sophisticated AI-driven technique to identify regions at risk of drought.
What effects will climate change have on Canada, the country with the highest number of lakes globally?
A recent analysis conducted by the University of Ottawa and Laval University indicates that climate change may lead many Canadian regions to experience serious drought conditions by the century’s end. As a countermeasure, the research team has rolled out a cutting-edge AI methodology to pinpoint drought-sensitive areas across the nation.
The team, composed of highly skilled individuals (HQP), was led by Associate Professor Hossein Bonakdari from the University of Ottawa’s Civil Engineering Department, in collaboration with Professor Silvio Gumiere from Laval University. This initiative received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) via the Discovery Grant program and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec – Nature et Technologies from the Quebec government.
“Drought represents a considerable risk for Canada, affecting agriculture, water supply, and natural ecosystems,” says Professor Bonakdari, who heads the project. “Our study offers a comprehensive review of past drought instances and forecasts for future occurrences, empowering better climate resilience planning.”
The findings deliver an essential and thorough comprehension of how climate change is anticipated to alter Canada’s environmental dynamics, particularly with regard to changes in precipitation, rising temperatures, and the frequency of droughts. Key discoveries include:
- Northern regions (Nunavut, Northwest Territories, Yukon) and central areas (Saskatchewan, Alberta) are expected to endure the most extreme drought conditions.
- Coastal and eastern provinces may undergo moderate but significant changes.
- In extreme climate scenarios, nearly half of Canada could confront severe drought by the year 2100.
This research utilizes deep-learning strategies and combines information from the Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) and ERA5-Land to explore historical drought trends and make predictions through 2100. Professor Bonakdari notes, “This pioneering approach addresses data voids and allows for solid predictions under various climate change conditions outlined in the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The capability to accurately identify drought hotspots in Canada through AI marks a major breakthrough in climate resilience initiatives.”
Important takeaways for the public include:
- Surprising insight: Drought in Canada is not limited to the southern regions. Northern areas like Nunavut, Northwest Territories, and Yukon are expected to grapple with severe drought conditions in the upcoming decades.
- Myth clarified: Constant precipitation doesn’t equate to no drought. Rising temperatures can intensify drought conditions even when total rainfall remains stable across Canada.
- Vital observation: The intensity of future droughts and rising temperatures hinges on our current responses. Effective climate policies and adaptation strategies are critically needed to lessen these effects.
- Focus on Northern areas: Northern regions, frequently neglected in climate discussions, are exceptionally vulnerable. Projected increases in temperature and intensified drought conditions in these areas underscore the urgent need for focused climate initiatives.
This research, featured in the Climate Journal, provides valuable insights for policymakers, resource managers, and stakeholders throughout Canada. By acknowledging variations in regional drought vulnerabilities and the repercussions of escalating temperatures, they can take preemptive actions to protect Canadian communities and ecosystems in the face of climate change.
