With just four weeks left until the conference championship games, we’re getting closer to identifying which teams will make it to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

The first release of the College Football Playoff rankings brought some surprises and maybe some frustrations for fans. It’s important to remember that several games are left that could affect the playoff picture. The initial rankings outlined a critical path that teams must navigate, making the November matchups increasingly significant for many squads.

This season has been unpredictable, which makes projecting the playoff teams challenging. However, several teams find themselves in precarious situations where their playoff hopes might be hanging on by a thread. So, which Week 11 games could most significantly impact who stays in the playoff hunt?

No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU

This game is pretty much an elimination matchup. The losing team can essentially wave goodbye to their College Football Playoff aspirations. At the start of the season, there were discussions about whether a three-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten could secure a playoff spot, given the strength of these conferences, and right now, it seems highly unlikely.

Alabama has a standout victory over Georgia, yet their loss to Vanderbilt is a significant blemish. They faced a strong opponent in Tennessee, but Alabama’s performance in that game was underwhelming, similar to some of their other wins. Conversely, LSU just suffered a significant defeat against Texas A&M, and their opening game loss to Southern California looks worse as the Trojans continue to falter.

Whoever loses this match will face a tough road to the SEC championship game, and the automatic bid that comes with it. Additionally, they will likely drop significantly in the next playoff ranking, and with no high-ranking opponents remaining on their schedule, it will be hard to impress the selection committee.

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 16 Mississippi

Georgia seems to be on a path toward securing a playoff spot; however, for Mississippi, this is a critical moment.

There was a lot of excitement around Lane Kiffin’s Rebels and their chances for the CFP at the season’s start. Currently sitting at 7-2, they are headed into their biggest challenge of the year without any notable wins. Their standout victory came against South Carolina, while they suffered defeats against LSU and a disappointing Kentucky team.

To keep their playoff hopes alive, Ole Miss needs to achieve a significant victory against one of the top teams. A loss would leave them without any ranked wins by season’s end.

No. 24 Colorado vs. Texas Tech

Colorado sat out last week and saw their playoff chances improve, thanks to Texas Tech. Now, they face the Red Raiders in an elimination duel.

Colorado is currently tied for second place in the Big 12 after winning five of their last six games and knows that a playoff spot is within reach. Ranked No. 20, the Buffaloes have a realistic shot at making the conference title game and earning an automatic bid, but they need to keep pace with Iowa State. A defeat would drop them to 4-2 in conference play, losing tiebreakers against Kansas State and Texas Tech without any strong wins. Their current strength of schedule ranks 80th, which doesn’t bode well for their chances.

Texas Tech, on the other hand, revived their playoff hopes with a victory over then-unbeaten Iowa State last week. A win against Colorado would give them back-to-back ranked victories, likely landing them in the Top 25 and just outside the conference title game consideration.

No. 17 Clemson vs. Virginia Tech

Just a few weeks ago, Clemson looked poised for the ACC title game and perhaps even a playoff spot. Now, under Dabo Swinney, big changes are necessary, as they are currently ranked 23rd by the committee.

Clemson enters Lane Stadium in desperate need of a win against a solid opponent. While the sting from their opening loss to Georgia didn’t feel significant early on, it now looms large over Clemson’s chances for quality wins after they failed to perform well against Louisville. Another loss would almost certainly eliminate any path to the ACC championship game.

No. 18 Iowa State vs. Kansas

The heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech stung Iowa State, especially coming in as the No. 17 team in the first playoff rankings. The core issue lies in their schedule’s strength.

For Iowa State, their best win was against rival Iowa, and they haven’t yet faced the top-tier teams in the Big 12. While the Cyclones still have the chance to go 11-1 and feel confident about their playoff hopes, a loss to Kansas would be a huge setback. Kansas started the season with high expectations but has since suffered several narrow defeats. Losing to the Jayhawks would be devastating for the Cyclones, who still aim to secure a spot in the conference championship game.