Historian and election expert Allan Lichtman predicts that Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, will win the presidency, defeating Republican candidate Donald Trump on Election Day.

Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted nine out of the last ten presidential elections, reaffirmed his prediction during a YouTube broadcast on Tuesday night. He noted that although Harris has seen a decrease in her advantages in key states and the polls are very close, his assessment remains unchanged.

“Nothing has changed since my prediction on September 5,” Lichtman remarked, “regardless of the polling data.”

Lichtman has faced criticism for his forecasts, particularly from political analyst Nate Silver, who referred to Lichtman’s methods as “totally arbitrary” in a recent post on X.

During his Tuesday update, Lichtman stressed that the 13 keys he relies on for his predictions haven’t changed. He expressed concern over the focus on polling in the media, stating that effective governance is a more telling indicator for the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.

“I don’t possess a crystal ball, unlike Speaker Mike Johnson, who seems to have a direct line to the Almighty. My approach is historical and sturdy, but we can never predict something as unprecedented as a catastrophic event that could shift historical patterns,” Lichtman explained, stating that such possibilities do not invalidate his prediction.

During a live 90-minute discussion, Lichtman’s son Sam posed questions to him, where Lichtman emphasized that democracy is at risk in this crucial election year.

He admitted that he usually gets nervous before elections but this time it feels significantly different.

“I have an entire flock of crows in my stomach,” he described.