This weekend, weather experts are forecasting much-needed rain for the drought-affected and wildfire-hit regions of Southern California. However, the anticipated precipitation also brings the risk of mudslides and additional challenges.

“Nearly every area in coastal Southern California, along with the Southern California mountains, should experience some rain this weekend,” stated Dave Houk, a Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather, in an online update on Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop starting Saturday, with a likelihood of 60% to 80%, potentially resulting in up to two inches of rain, according to Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office, who spoke to YSL News on Wednesday.

If the forecast holds true, this could mark the most substantial rainfall in downtown Los Angeles since Christmas Eve, when only 0.02 inches were recorded, he noted.

“At this point, it’s hard to make specific predictions. We’ll need to monitor how the situation develops, as rainfall estimates could range widely from none to two inches,” Kittell explained. “The most likely measurable rainfall is expected on Sunday, with half an inch or less being the most probable outcome.”

Potential for Mudslides and Debris Flow

While the incoming rain may offer some relief to firefighting teams, it could also raise concerns for flash floods and debris flow on recently burned hillsides, Kittell cautioned.

He mentioned a “slight 10% chance” of experiencing higher rainfall amounts, noting that heavier rains over recently burned areas could increase the risk of debris flow.

“While the threat of significant rain is low, it’s not nonexistent,” Kittell remarked. “We need to pay close attention, especially in areas impacted by the Eaton Fire in Pasadena and Altadena.”

In light of these risks, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has issued an executive order to expedite cleanup and reduce potential “toxic runoff” impacts.

Mayor Bass’ order aims to “secure burned areas and control toxic debris flow,” as well as “prevent further damage to fire-impacted zones and protect our watersheds, beaches, and oceans from harmful runoff.”

The order outlines actions including installing barriers, removing debris, and redirecting stormwater runoff to the city’s sewer system for treatment.

Kittell emphasized that a variety of outcomes could arise from the rain.

“We need to remain vigilant as there are still uncertainties. It’s wise to be prepared,” Kittell advised. “For the next year or two, we will continue to face risks of debris flows, flooding, and mudslides whenever rain is on the horizon.”

Progress in Fire Containment Despite Ongoing Red Flag Warnings

The anticipated rain comes as thousands of firefighters are involved in combating wildfires that have spread across 45 square miles in Los Angeles County. Cal Fire reports that the two major blazes, the Palisades Fire and the Eaton Fire, are currently 68% and 91% contained, respectively. These wildfires have resulted in the destruction of over 15,000 structures and claimed at least 28 lives.

Additionally, other fires were flaring up in the area. On Wednesday afternoon, firefighters were engaged with new blazes, including a rapidly spreading brush fire in the Santa Clarita Valley that led to evacuations. Another fire, known as the Hughes Fire, located northwest of Los Angeles, expanded by over 500 acres in just more than an hour.

Due to severe drought conditions and low humidity levels, Red flag warnings are in effect until Thursday, as a rise in Santa Ana winds with gusts reaching up to 50 mph, and isolated gusts of 75 mph in mountainous areas, are expected, Kittell stated.

“A red flag warning from the weather service indicates that if a fire starts, the conditions could lead to extreme fire behavior and rapid growth, jeopardizing lives and property,” Kittell warned.