NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen of Bills Takes Lead Over Lamar Jackson After Week 11
With Week 11 now completed in the NFL, playoff scenarios are becoming clearer. This week’s outcomes have also shaken up the MVP race. As per the current MVP odds, a new frontrunner has emerged.
Although the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans have yet to play on “Monday Night Football,” Josh Allen has already claimed the top spot in the MVP odds.
Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson had been leading most of the season, as seen in BetMGM’s odds. However, following the Buffalo Bills’ victory over the previously undefeated defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, Allen has taken over.
With this change, Allen is now the favorite for the MVP award. It’s noteworthy that the last time a non-quarterback won the MVP was back in 2012 with running back Adrian Peterson, who ended that year with 2,097 rushing yards. Before him, it was LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, who scored 28 touchdowns and rushed for over 1,800 yards. As it stands, all of the top 10 players in the MVP odds list are quarterbacks.
Current NFL MVP Odds
Below are the leading candidates for the NFL MVP award after 11 weeks, as per BetMGM on Monday:
1. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills: +150
Josh Allen has not yet earned an MVP award but has finished in the top five for three out of the last four seasons, notably as the runner-up in 2020 and a finalist in both 2022 and 2023. Following his team’s win against the undefeated Chiefs in Week 11, Allen has now taken the lead over Jackson.
The Bills are on a six-game winning streak, holding a commanding 9-2 record as they vie for the AFC East title. Allen ranks sixth in the league with 18 passing touchdowns and has also rushed for 316 yards and five touchdowns. He has been relatively protective of the ball, with only five interceptions this season. The Bills will have a bye in Week 12, but when they return in Week 13, they face the defending NFC champions, the 49ers, which could further boost his MVP candidacy.
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens: +200
Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 13-4 record last season, clinching the AFC North title and earning his second MVP award after previously winning in 2019. However, following a recent loss to the Steelers, where he struggled, Jackson’s status in the MVP race is now in jeopardy.
The Ravens now trail the Steelers by two games. In the loss, Jackson threw for just 207 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Despite this, he still leads the NFL in quarterback rating and ranks second in touchdown passes. The MVP contest between him and Allen is heating up as we head into the final weeks.
3. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions: +650
Jared Goff boasts a remarkable 73% completion rate, the highest among quarterbacks with at least eight starts, putting him in rare company alongside Drew Brees’ record 74.4% completion rate in 2018. He currently sits fourth in touchdowns and ninth in passing yards.
With a 9-1 record, the Lions have the best standing in the NFC and showcased a strong offensive display against the Jaguars in Week 11.
Looking ahead, Goff has a chance to prove himself worthy of the MVP title as he takes on the Bears in Week 13, followed by a matchup against the Packers on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 14. He will then face Allen’s Bills in a highly-anticipated showdown. Goff has the potential for a defining moment in Week 17, where he could seek redemption against the 49ers, the only team to defeat him in the NFC Championship.
4. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: +1200
Two-time NFL MVP and back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is having a challenging season, with his stats suggesting he could be on course for his lowest numbers yet. Currently, he has a projected total of 25 passing touchdowns, a concerning 18 interceptions, and the worst passer rating (90.3) of his career.
After suffering his first loss of the season against Allen’s Bills, Mahomes completed 23 of 33 passes for 196 yards, scoring three touchdowns and throwing two interceptions. Over the next two weeks, he has opportunities to improve his statistics against weak opposition in the Panthers and Raiders.
5. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: +1400
Jalen Hurts has the Eagles soaring with an 8-2 record after Week 11, reminiscent of last season’s success. Although they started 10-1 last year only to falter to 11-6, Hurts is back health-wise and second in rushing touchdowns this season with 11, just behind Derrick Henry’s 13.
Hurts finished as the runner-up in the 2022 MVP vote. Currently, he is performing better than that season, completing a career-high 69.2% of his passes with a 103.4 QB rating. So far, he has thrown for 2,197 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. The Eagles seem poised for the top seed in the NFC, which would bolster Hurts’ chances in the MVP race.