This race has taken a new turn.

A recent YSL News/Suffolk Poll reveals an optimistic outlook for Democrats and declining confidence among Republicans in a presidential race that has unexpectedly led to Vice President Kamala Harris facing off against former president Donald Trump.

With President Joe Biden taking a step back — a move that Republicans have criticized but Democrats have welcomed — Harris has quickly closed the enthusiasm gap with the GOP and reduced Trump’s lead in areas such as the economy and immigration, according to the poll.

Currently, Harris leads Trump 48%-43%, a margin that falls within the poll’s margin of error. There is at least one debate scheduled, and around 10% of voters are either undecided or may shift their preferences.

This shift in dynamics indicates that a victory in November, which many Republicans, including some in Trump’s campaign, believed was almost assured after the GOP convention in July, is now uncertain. For now, Democrats appear to be gaining momentum.

“I’m thrilled by the amazing decision President Biden made to let new leadership come in, as that’s the direction our country should head,” explained Tracy Vega, 60, a former Republican now Democrat from Sacramento. “The Harris-Walz campaign has gained incredible traction recently. I believe this reflects a sense of hope.”

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters via landline and cell phone between August 25-28, following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Democrats are also seeing positive results further down the ballot.

In June, voters favored local Republican congressional candidates over the Democrats by a slim 47%-45%. However, now, likely voters support the Democratic candidate over the Republican by 48%-43%, indicating a seven-point shift.

Optimism for Democrats, worries for Republicans

Trump has criticized Harris’s rise, calling it “undemocratic.”

“This really surprised me,” said Roger Sierra, 28, an independent Trump supporter from Miami. He questioned how Harris, who failed to secure a delegate in her previous presidential run, now has significant support, feeling her nomination was more of an imposition than a choice.

Democrats, however, expressed overwhelming satisfaction with the recent changes. A notable 94% felt it was correct for Biden to step aside, while 92% believed that nominating Harris was the right choice for the party.

“As someone over 50, I find the ageism prevalent in discussions about Biden’s candidacy quite troubling,” remarked Liesl Semper, 58, an HR specialist from Akron, Ohio, who tends to support Democrats. “But practically speaking, this election is about winning.”

In a previous YSL News/Suffolk Poll from late June, Trump supporters expressed significantly higher levels of enthusiasm towards voting for their candidate compared to Biden supporters, 59%-30%. Now, the excitement among Trump supporters remains about the same at 60%, while enthusiasm among Harris supporters has surged to 68%, which is more than double Biden’s previous numbers.

Harris has also made strides in how voters perceive her capabilities on key issues.

• Regarding the economy, voters’ primary concern, Trump led Harris by 6 points, 51%-45%. This is a smaller gap compared to the 14-point lead he had over Biden in June.
• On immigration, Trump led Harris by 3 points, 50%-47%, down from the 13-point lead he held over Biden.
• For national security and relations with China, Trump was favored over Harris by 4 points, reduced from his previous 10-point advantage over Biden.
• On health care and racial issues, Harris led with a margin of 14 points and 19 points, respectively, surpassing Biden’s 10-point leads.

“It’s crucial that Trump does not return to presidency,” said Jane Crosson, 67, a retired pediatric cardiologist and Democrat from Durham, N.C. “My primary concerns include safeguarding democracy and women’s health rights. I could elaborate endlessly.”

Yet Republican Melissa Bennett, 54, an office manager and Trump supporter from Pasco, Washington, expressed fears regarding national security if Harris were to become president. “I fear we’d appear weak,” she stated.

Warnings for Election Day

Among Harris supporters, 68% expressed “very high confidence” that ballots will be accurately counted and reported, with another 29% feeling “somewhat confident.” Only 2% were “not confident.”

In stark contrast, only 11% of Trump supporters were “very confident” about a fair count, while 45% were “somewhat confident.” A significant 42% were “not confident.”

This discrepancy could lead to potential disputes and legal actions following Election Day. Should Trump lose again, over 25% of his supporters, precisely 27%, have stated they would not accept the outcome, echoing sentiments held by many who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an effort to disrupt the Electoral College vote count in the last election.

What are voters predicting about the upcoming election?

Back in June, 73% of people who support Biden believed he would secure the win; now, that number has risen to 87% for Harris supporters, marking an increase of 14 points.

During the same period, 88% of Trump supporters were confident he’d win. Currently, that figure has decreased to 76% — although still a majority, this reflects a drop of 12 points.