LSU tops college football Week 11 Misery Index as playoff dreams fade
Scott Woodward, athletic director at LSU, is known in the college sports realm as a “big game hunter.”
Whenever there’s an opportunity to hire a coach in almost any sport, Woodward throws significant funds at securing an established star. Agents and coaches appreciate his generosity. However, fans at LSU may believe he has fallen short in his primary responsibility: positioning Tiger football to win national championships.
The Tigers’ 42-13 defeat to Alabama on Saturday, particularly at home during a prime-time game, not only eliminates them from College Football Playoff considerations, it raises doubts about whether Brian Kelly was the suitable choice for Woodward when LSU was the most coveted coaching job back in late 2021.
At that time, Kelly had just wrapped up his 12th season with Notre Dame, where he seemed to have reached his peak. It was believed that LSU, with its richer resources and broader recruiting potential, would allow a seasoned coach to achieve even greater success and perhaps win a national title.
However, the reality for Kelly is that his record at LSU stands at a mediocre 26-10, likely leading to three consecutive finishes outside the top-10. Besides a surprising overtime victory against Alabama in 2022, under Kelly, LSU tends to win expected games but also drop more games than anticipated. Consequently, LSU has become just an adequate top-tier SEC program under Kelly, which isn’t what Woodward expected when he agreed to a staggering $95 million contract over ten years.
LSU is expected to vie for championships, but under Kelly’s leadership, they have yet to come close. The northern-born Kelly, who brings a level of competency, has seemed somewhat out of sync with the culture in Baton Rouge. Ultimately, he faces the same challenge at LSU as he did at Notre Dame: he struggles to secure wins against teams with equal or superior talent.
Regardless of Kelly’s coaching capabilities, Woodward made an error. This isn’t his first slip in a high-pressure context.
It is worth noting that Woodward’s past experiences at Washington, Texas A&M, and now LSU have resulted in notable successes. For example, he successfully hired Kim Mulkey for women’s basketball and Jay Johnson for baseball, leading to immediate revivals and championships.
However, it’s widely acknowledged that an athletic director’s success is primarily measured by their football hires, where Woodward’s recent decisions have faltered. He was behind the record-setting 10-year, $75 million deal that brought Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M, which didn’t pan out as expected. Now at LSU, Kelly has yet to clarify why Woodward was so determined to have him leave Notre Dame.
The core issue with Woodward is whether he adheres to a set of guiding principles in his decision-making, or if his leadership style focuses on making a big splash, aiming to demonstrate his influence to fans and fellow athletic directors.
At this moment, it appears to lean towards the latter. As the Tigers continue to struggle in key matchups, the situation grows increasingly concerning. Therefore, LSU ranks as No. 1 on the Misery Index, which ranks fan bases experiencing the most disappointment.
Four additional teams in distress
Georgia: The College Football Playoff committee is likely to offer the Bulldogs more leniency than any other team in the nation, which is fitting since they’ve faced the toughest schedule in college football. If Georgia wins its remaining three home games against Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Georgia Tech, they’ll secure a playoff spot at 10-2, as expected.
Nevertheless, upon closer inspection, Georgia’s gameplay isn’t particularly compelling. Their recent 28-10 loss at Ole Miss laid bare all their flaws, from quarterback performance to turnovers, and a defense that can be easily overpowered. In that outing, Georgia mustered just 245 offensive yards while losing the turnover battle 3-1 and struggling to run the ball effectively. This wasn’t a one-time event; aside from a notable performance against Texas on October 19, these problems have become routine. Are Georgia fans spoiled? Certainly. But it doesn’t require entitlement to recognize that this is Kirby Smart’s weakest team in several years.
Florida: This season has been turbulent for the Gators. Fans are not just calling for head coach Billy Napier to be dismissed; they also want the athletics director who hired him out. However, Scott Stricklin’s recent statement confirming Napier’s return in 2025 seemingly concludes that debate, indicating that both Napier and Stricklin remain in their positions. Yet, on Friday, Florida’s student newspaper, The Alligator, reported troubling allegations against men’s basketball coach Todd Golden, which has led to a Title IX investigation. The entire athletic department appears to be on shaky ground.
It’s uncertain how these developments will affect Florida’s athletic leadership.
With the university in the process of finding a new president who will likely influence decisions regarding the football program, it’s increasingly challenging for Gators fans to trust another year under coach Napier after suffering a heavy 49-17 defeat at the hands of Texas. While it’s true that the Longhorns are a superior team this season, Florida’s lack of competitiveness following Napier’s renewed support will only heighten the frustration among many Gators supporters who feel significant changes are necessary for the team to remain relevant in the SEC in the near future.
Michigan: This season, we haven’t really discussed how last year’s national champions have faded to the background in the Big Ten, where they might be fortunate to finish with a 6-6 record. What’s behind this? Is it Jim Harbaugh’s departure to the NFL? A mass exodus of talent? Or perhaps Sherrone Moore, in his first year as head coach, deserves some slack as he navigates his new role?
This is Michigan we’re talking about. When a 20-15 defeat to Indiana is seen as one of the Wolverines’ better showings this season, there could be deeper issues at play that need addressing.
Currently at 5-5, Michigan can attain bowl eligibility in a couple of weeks by defeating Northwestern. However, that isn’t even a certainty, as the quarterback situation has deteriorated so much that their last game scoring over 30 points was on August 31 against Fresno State.
Alabama-Birmingham: The major issue hovering over the Blazers is whether the administration and fanbase can scrape together the $4.1 million required to part ways with coach Trent Dilfer. Already seen as an overwhelming failure in his role, Dilfer experienced an absurdly bad loss of 31-23 to UConn. UAB led 23-10 going into the fourth quarter but allowed three touchdowns in four possessions while their offense managed merely 42 yards on 21 plays and turned the ball over twice. With a record of 2-7 and Dilfer holding a 6-15 mark over two seasons, it’s crucial to remember that the program wasn’t in disarray prior to his tenure. They had a 7-6 record in 2022 under interim coach Bryant Vincent, who is now 5-4 at Louisiana-Monroe. Yet UAB’s athletic director Mark Ingram was drawn to the appeal of a big-name former NFL quarterback, despite Dilfer’s lack of college coaching experience. UAB will be feeling the repercussions for years to come.
Miserable but not miserable enough
North Carolina State: Throughout this decade, NC State has stood out because of its ability to consistently win eight or nine games each year under Dave Doeren. Remarkably, from 2017 through 2023, the Wolfpack has only failed to reach that win total once. Doeren has provided stability at a program often overshadowed by college basketball and the NHL in North Carolina’s Triangle area. NC State fans take pride in being the overachievers in football, especially with their rivals, the Tar Heels, often underperforming. However, what happens when Duke becomes the top team in the state? This appears to be the case after their 29-19 win over NC State, leaving the Wolfpack at 5-5 and requiring victories against either Georgia Tech or North Carolina for postseason eligibility. The expansion of the ACC has masked how underwhelming this NC State squad truly is, with only conference wins against California and Stanford. Losing to both Duke and Wake Forest at home has revealed that this might be Doeren’s weakest team in quite some time.
Florida Atlantic: After being let go by Texas, Tom Herman kept a low profile for a couple of years before resurfacing in Boca Raton, hoping to revive a coaching career that once seemed promising. Unfortunately, it has taken a downturn instead. The Owls are currently the worst team in the American Athletic Conference, highlighted by a 49-14 defeat to East Carolina, which recently fired its coach. FAU’s defense has been abysmal all season and, with a record of 2-7, their victories have come against Florida International and Wagner. The strategy of hiring a coach looking to recover from failures in a power conference has had mixed results; while it worked once at FAU with Lane Kiffin, other choices like Willie Taggart (15-18) and Herman (6-14) have failed to deliver similar success.
Oklahoma State: In the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career, Mike Gundy stirred controversy by claiming that critics of his program are “the same ones that can’t pay their own bills.” He quickly issued an apology on X during a busy news cycle focused on election results. However, he then faced a 38-13 loss to TCU, cementing a trend of embarrassing and lopsided results that suggest he may have lost the support of his players. With a dismal record of 3-7 this season, including a winless streak in the Big 12, things are looking bleak for a team once expected to compete for the conference title. While Gundy has managed to navigate controversies in the past, this insult to fans during a rough season could come back to haunt him.
Iowa State: While it always seemed a bit ambitious for the Cyclones to aim for the CFP, being picked sixth in the Big 12 preseason poll, they were on a path of exceeding expectations until now. After starting strong at 7-0, Iowa State has faced a downturn with back-to-back losses, including a disappointing 45-36 defeat against a struggling Kansas team. Unless they catch some lucky breaks in the remaining games, the Cyclones won’t secure a spot in the 12-team playoff. The recent comprehensive loss to Kansas, where they fell behind 38-13 early in the second half, has put a dent in their hopes. Had they won that game, fans may have dared to envision a place in the Big 12 championship. Instead, they now are faced with the sobering reality that Iowa State lacks the caliber needed for such ambitions.