The excitement of March Madness comes not only from the games but also from the anticipation of who will qualify for the NCAA tournament each year. This process has become almost as enjoyable as the tournament itself. Over the past decade, we’ve learned that bracketology is a year-round event.

What used to be a last-minute affair before Selection Sunday has now evolved into a regular discussion throughout the season. Phrases like “the bubble,” “last four in,” and “first four out” are now commonplace. Nowadays, bracketologists, like Joe Lunardi from ESPN, offer updates multiple times a week throughout the basketball season.

With about two months left until Selection Sunday for the 2025 NCAA tournament, the race for tournament slots and top seeds is heating up due to the onset of conference play. Below is a summary of the latest expectations for this year’s March Madness, highlighting possible No. 1 seeds, ascending and declining teams, and the current bubble situation as of Friday, January 17:

March Madness Bracketology 2025: Likely No. 1 Seeds

Check out the teams expected to be No. 1 seeds in the 2025 NCAA tournament according to various national sources:

• ESPN: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
• CBS Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
• NCAA.com: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
• FOX Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
• The Washington Post: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Tennessee

NCAA Tournament 2025: Teams Making Moves

• Michigan State: After a semifinal loss to Memphis in the Maui Invitational, the Spartans have secured 10 consecutive victories. Moving from No. 41 to No. 17 in this year’s initial NET rankings, they are on track for a top-three seed come Selection Sunday.
• Arizona: The Wildcats started rough with a challenging non-conference schedule, losing five out of their first nine games. However, they’ve bounced back with a seven-game winning streak heading into Saturday’s Big 12 matchup against Texas Tech, climbing from No. 65 to No. 12 in the NET rankings over the past six weeks.
• Mississippi: Under coach Chris Beard, the team only has losses to ranked opponents (Purdue and Memphis) and has kicked off SEC play with four consecutive wins, including a significant road victory against Alabama. Their chances for a top-four seed look strong, given the competitive landscape of the SEC this season.
• Louisville: In an impressive turnaround during coach Pat Kelsey’s first season, the Cardinals remain undefeated in ACC play. This resurgence has propelled them into the national conversation, with some updates now placing them as a No. 6 seed.

Selection Sunday 2025: Falling Teams in Bracketology

• Dayton: The Flyers recorded non-conference victories against UConn, Marquette, and Northwestern, but have diminished their standing with three consecutive losses in Atlantic-10 games.
• Pittsburgh: Despite a strong non-conference showing, back-to-back losses to Duke, Louisville, and Florida State have left the Panthers teetering on the bubble.
• Indiana: The Hoosiers were on a high after four straight wins in the Big Ten but suffered heavy defeats to Iowa and Illinois, putting their tournament hopes and coach Mike Woodson’s job security at risk.
• Oklahoma: The Sooners had a strong 13-game winning streak at the season’s start, including wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan. However, they’ve fallen significantly after losing four straight to start SEC play.

Current March Madness Bubble Teams

Here’s a glance at teams thought to be on the bubble as conference play intensifies, with nearly two months remaining until Selection Sunday:

ESPN

*As of Jan. 17

• Last four in: Ohio State, Creighton, New Mexico, Texas, Dayton
• Last four byes: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Saint Mary’s, Nebraska, Missouri
• First four out: Vanderbilt, Iowa, Cincinnati, UCF
• Next four out: Arizona State, Arkansas, SMU, Dayton

CBS Sports

*As of Jan. 17

• Last four in: Texas, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
• Last four byes: Iowa, Creighton, UCLA, San Diego State
• First four out: SMU, Texas Tech, Northwestern, Arizona State

FOX Sports

*As of Jan. 14

• Last four in: Texas Tech, New Mexico, Creighton, Iowa
• First four out: Texas, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Georgetown
• Next four out: SMU, Arizona State, Penn State, Cincinnati

The Washington Post

*As of Jan. 13

• Last four in: UCF, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s
• First four out: Arkansas, Drake, Vanderbilt, Dayton
• Next four out: Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State

Andy Katz, NCAA.com

*As of Jan. 14

• Last four in: Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s, Ohio State, Creighton
• Next teams considered: Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, BYU, Villanova, VCU, Dayton

YSL News Coaches Poll

Below are the latest standings from the YSL News Coaches Poll for men’s basketball, published on Jan. 13.

1. Auburn (16-1)
2. Iowa State (15-1)
3. Duke (15-2)
4. Florida (15-2)
5. Alabama (14-3)
6. Tennessee (16-1)
7. Marquette (15-2)
8. Houston (13-3)
9. Kentucky (14-3)
10. Kansas (12-4)
11. Texas A&M (13-4)
12. Michigan State (15-2)
13. UConn (13-4)
14. Oregon (15-2)
15. Purdue (14-4)
16. Gonzaga (14-5)
17. Memphis (13-4)
18. Mississippi State (14-3)
19. Michigan (13-4)
20. Illinois (13-4)
21. Mississippi (15-2)
22. Utah State (16-2)
23. Georgia (14-3)
24. Baylor (11-5)
25. West Virginia (12-4)

*Records through games played on Jan. 16