In the last national poll from Marist, released on Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by four points.

This poll surveyed 1,297 likely voters and was backed by NPR and PBS, revealing that 51% of participants favored Harris, while 47% supported Trump. An additional 2% chose a third-party candidate. These figures fall outside the poll’s ±3.5 percentage point margin of error.

The poll indicated that Harris has notably narrowed the gap with Trump among male voters. Trump still leads men with 51% to Harris’s 47%, but previously he was ahead by 16 points. Among women, Harris has a lead of 55%-45%, although this represents a decrease from her earlier 18-point advantage.

Of those surveyed, 55% reported they had already voted. The poll, which was conducted from October 31 to November 2 through phone, text, or online methods, revealed that 56% of those who had voted favored Harris, while 53% of those yet to vote preferred Trump.

“Harris is strategically positioned to win the popular vote, but she faces a challenging path to secure 270 votes in the Electoral College,” stated Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, during the poll’s announcement. “Trump’s campaign struggles due to his high unfavorable ratings among likely voters.”

The Marist poll indicates a last-minute shift in momentum toward Harris, mirroring findings from a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll where the Vice President was also leading in a state previously viewed as secure for Trump. Other national surveys show a race that is closely contested.

Important Considerations Regarding Polling

The margin of error indicates how well the survey results reflect the entire population.

If a candidate’s lead falls “within” the margin of error, it is regarded as a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew has also pointed out that many pollsters have adjusted their strategies since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s support was often underestimated.