The New England Patriots parted ways with head coach Jerod Mayo shortly after their victory against the Buffalo Bills in Week 18. A week later, they have found his successor.

The Patriots announced on Sunday that former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel will take over as their 16th head coach.

Vrabel spent the 2024 NFL season as a consultant for the Cleveland Browns but was highly sought after due to his successful tenure in Tennessee. He guided the Titans to three straight playoff appearances and took them to the AFC Championship Game during the 2020 NFL playoffs, which followed the 2019 season.

Now, Vrabel aims to replicate that success with the Patriots, a franchise he played for over eight seasons and where he won three Super Bowls. Let’s examine the winners and losers in New England’s decision to hire the 49-year-old as their new head coach.

Winners

New England Patriots

Starting with the most obvious, the Patriots came out ahead in this scenario by securing one of the offseason’s most desired coaching candidates.

Having posted a 54-45 record over six seasons with the Titans, Vrabel arrives at New England with considerable coaching experience. He earned a reputation as a strong leader who cultivated a tough mindset within his defenses, helping him maximize the talent of average rosters. A prime example was when Tennessee secured the AFC’s top seed in 2021 with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, showcasing a strong, cohesive defense that exceeded expectations.

In many respects, Vrabel embodies everything the Patriots intended to gain with Mayo. He is a robust, defense-oriented coach with deep-rooted connections to New England, potentially providing the identity the team has sought as it shifts away from the Bill Belichick era.

Mike Vrabel

The NFL is expected to have six head coaching openings in the 2025 offseason, barring any surprises from the league’s 14 playoff teams. Vrabel has likely landed the premier role among these vacancies.

The reasons are straightforward. The Patriots have an established quarterback in Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2024 NFL draft, who performed admirably as a rookie despite facing poor blocking and limited receiving options. He is expected to develop further as his skills improve and as New England enhances its roster, relieving Vrabel of the need to search for a starting quarterback.

In addition, the Patriots hold significant resources for roster improvement, possessing the No. 4 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They can utilize this to target versatile players like Travis Hunter or a standout pass rusher such as Abdul Carter. Furthermore, New England is projected to have $120 million in salary cap space, according to OverTheCap.com, which positions the team well to revamp a currently weak roster.

It’s tough to envision any other job offering Vrabel such a promising path to success. Coupled with his familiarity with the organization, this clearly seems like the optimal situation for him.

Robert Kraft

Kraft referred to the dismissal of Mayo as “one of the toughest decisions I have ever made.” However, he must feel relieved now after successfully acquiring Vrabel, who brings crucial experience as the team transitions from the Belichick era.

The timely action taken by Kraft to fire Mayo right after the Week 18 loss to Buffalo played a significant role in landing Vrabel quickly. By not waiting for the NFL’s traditional “Black Monday,” Kraft allowed the Patriots to enter the coaching search sooner than anticipated, which was likely critical considering the widespread interest in Vrabel.

Losers

New York Jets and Other Teams Interested in Mike Vrabel

The Patriots were not alone in their interest in Vrabel. The Jets, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, and Las Vegas Raiders were also rumored to be considering the former Titans coach for coaching roles. He would have served as a stabilizing influence and an upgrade for all four teams, but now they must look for other candidates.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans fired Vrabel after the 2023 NFL season, a decision that is beginning to look questionable now.

His successor, Brian Callahan, has had a tough first season, guiding the Titans to a disappointing 3-14 record, which ties them for the worst in the NFL alongside the Browns and Giants, resulting in the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The team’s poor performance led to the dismissal of general manager Ran Carthon, who had been extended just last offseason after a significant spending spree.

Under Vrabel, the Titans were always a resilient squad, capable of competing in the AFC South and for a wild card spot, regardless of the roster’s condition. Now, despite having a seemingly stronger roster, they are among the NFL’s weakest teams.

If ownership could have a do-over, they might choose to retain Vrabel instead of letting him go.

The team’s prospects may improve if Callahan can secure a more skilled quarterback, but with the upcoming 2025 NFL draft showing little promise for that position, Tennessee is facing a challenging outlook.

Jerod Mayo

It’s clear that Mayo encountered a tough environment in New England. The roster suffered from poor management under Belichick late in his tenure, resulting in a significant deficit of offensive talent.

However, Mayo’s reputation as a top coaching prospect has taken a hit due to his year with the Patriots. While the 4-13 season record was somewhat anticipated given the circumstances, the team’s struggle to establish a clear identity and direction ultimately led to his firing. This lack of clarity could hinder his chances when teams consider him for major roles in the future.

In reality, Mayo may have been elevated to the head coaching position prematurely. At just 38 years old and having been coaching since 2019, he needed more experience before stepping into such a significant role. His shortcomings cannot be solely attributed to him; nevertheless, this setback may dampen his prospects of securing an NFL head coaching position in the near future.

Robert Kraft

Kraft finds himself in a position where he can be seen as both a victor and a loser in this context. Why? He greenlit a succession clause within Mayo’s contract with the Patriots.

“I worried about losing him, so I committed to making him our next head coach,” Kraft stated when announcing Mayo’s firing.

This contract clause might have seemed like a sound strategy initially. However, it inadvertently thrust Mayo into the head coaching role before he was fully prepared, particularly as the team moved on from Belichick sooner than anticipated. It also restricted their ability to assess alternative coaching candidates available in the 2024 NFL offseason, such as Vrabel.

Thus, while the Patriots ultimately secured what might be considered the best candidate for their coaching position, it took them an additional year to arrive at this conclusion. They may also have risked damaging their relationship with Mayo—a young defensive talent with great potential. Therefore, Kraft faces significant criticism for his shortcomings in this regard.