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HomeLocalNavigating the Ballot: Insights from Harris' Campaign Challenges and Vance's Unshakable Victory

Navigating the Ballot: Insights from Harris’ Campaign Challenges and Vance’s Unshakable Victory

 

Insights from the Election: Harris Faces Biden’s Shadow; Vance Emerges Victorious


Voters who perceive the opposing party as dangerous threats to democracy are unlikely to view a loss as a sign of national agreement; instead, they will see it as a catalyst for the next campaign.

It’s not only about who wins and who loses.

 

The remarkable 2024 election has featured a sitting president stepping back, a former president making a comeback, a new contender seizing the moment, and a well-known third-party candidate who experienced ups and downs before re-emerging. Additionally, there have been two attempts on candidates’ lives and the tightest polls in U.S. history.

This election will significantly impact the political landscape across the country.

 

Here are five key takeaways.

The National Conversation Isn’t Over.

Winning the election won’t resolve the ongoing debates.

For the last three elections, American politics have been closely divided and deeply polarized—a volatile mix that complicates the efforts of the victorious party to claim a clear mandate.

How divided are we? In 2016, Republican Donald Trump won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, it took almost a week to confirm Joe Biden’s victory against Trump due to the tightness of the race in crucial states.

 

In this election, final polls indicated that neither Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris had a solid lead, with results falling within the margins of error in major swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

Evidence of this unrest: Except when presidents have died in office, it’s been over a century since the U.S. elected back-to-back one-term presidents, as evidenced by Trump’s win in 2016 and Biden’s in 2020.

 

According to exit polls from Edison Research, 70% of Harris’s supporters expressed fear at the prospect of a Trump victory, while nearly 60% of Trump supporters felt similarly about a Harris win.

Today’s voters who regard the opposition as a perilous threat to democracy are less likely to interpret a loss as a reflection of a national consensus; they will consider it a launchpad for the upcoming campaign.

 

Latino Voters Shift the Political Landscape.

The formation of political coalitions within the two major parties is evolving, with a notable shift of Hispanic voters towards the GOP.

Democrats have traditionally relied on support from voters of color. However, in this election, Trump made notable strides among Hispanic voters, as well as some gains among Black voters, particularly men.

 

This indicates that factors like gender, education, and class are becoming increasingly important alongside race and ethnicity in determining political support among Latino and Black voters.

In 2016, Trump won around 28% of Hispanic voters, trailing 40 percentage points behind Hillary Clinton.

 

However, in key battleground state North Carolina, Trump almost evenly split the Latino vote, capturing 60% of Hispanic men. Notably, while 90% of Black women supported Harris, 20% of Black men cast their votes for Trump.

In Pennsylvania, only 3% of Black women but a surprising 23% of Black men chose Trump.

If these trends continue on a national scale, it could diversify the Republican coalition, forcing Democrats to seek a broader appeal among white voters to secure national wins.

 

The number of eligible Hispanic voters is on the rise.

According to a report by the nonpartisan Latino Donor Collaborative, an estimated 36.2 million Hispanics were eligible to vote this year, constituting 50% of all new eligible voters since the 2020 election.

In battleground states, Hispanics represent 27% of the electorate in Arizona and 21% in Nevada.

Their political influence was highlighted by the outrage following a comedian’s disparagement of Puerto Rico, which Harris highlighted during her campaign with an advertisement featuring the clip.

 

Trump distanced his campaign from these comments, affirming his love for Hispanic people during a recent rally in Albuquerque.

Notably, close to half a million Puerto Ricans reside in Pennsylvania, the most pivotal state in this election.

Is Biden a Burden?

President Joe Biden was not on the ballot during this election—a decision he made following a challenging debate performance in June. However, his influence weighed heavily on Harris, who took his place on the Democratic ticket.

Nationwide exit polls indicated that only 41% of voters approved of Biden’s presidency, while 58% disapproved. In key swing states, his approval was even lower, hitting 38% in Wisconsin.

 

Across the nation, 70% of voters voiced dissatisfaction or anger with the country’s current state.

Biden’s choice to pursue a second term has faced intense scrutiny, though he received some praise for ultimately deciding to not run. A misstep during a campaign appearance, where he appeared to label Trump supporters as “garbage,” forced Harris to clarify that she did not share that view.

 

During an appearance on ABC’s “The View,” Harris struggled to describe how her presidency might differ from Biden’s, a topic that the Trump campaign capitalized on in their advertisements. This left an unfavorable impression among 80% of voters seeking “substantial change.”

A Surge in Unseen Funding.

The new trend in campaign financing is obscured from view.

The 2024 presidential race has achieved record fundraising, with Harris raising over $1 billion in just the first quarter of her abbreviated campaign. Federal law limits contributions to campaigns and political parties, ensuring transparency.

 

However, the most significant increase in 2024 election spending has stemmed from super PACs and external organizations that have no cap on their expenditures and use ways to keep donor identities confidential.

Independent-expenditure groups have spent upward of $4.5 billion, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan organization monitoring campaign finances—over $1.5 billion more than in the previous election cycle.

While outside spending favored Democrats in 2020, Republicans are currently benefiting more from this trend.

Although super PACs must disclose their donors, nonprofit groups classified as 501(c)(4) do not have this requirement, allowing undisclosed contributions to be funneled to super PACs under their name.

The sums involved can be staggering. Businessman Barre Seid contributed $1.6 billion to a 501(c)(4) group led by conservative activist Leonard Leo in 2020, which is believed to be a historic political donation. Additionally, billionaire Michael Bloomberg reportedly donated $19 million to Harris’s main super PAC and another $50 million to its 501(c)(4), Future Forward USA Action.

 

Attempts to increase transparency in campaign financing have been hindered by the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, which allowed corporations and unions to spend unlimited amounts on elections independent of campaigns, framing it as protected political speech under the First Amendment.

Since then, spending has proliferated while transparency has diminished.

 

JD Vance: A Winner Regardless of the Outcome.

Trump has reshaped the GOP in his likeness, and with his choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, he has anointed a potential successor to the MAGA movement.

 

Despite suggestions that Trump should select a vice-presidential candidate to broaden the GOP’s appeal to diverse voters, he ultimately chose Vance, aligning with someone who shares his populist stance and defiance toward the traditional Republican establishment and media. Vance’s bestselling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” recounts his upbringing in poverty in Kentucky and Ohio, endearing him to many supporters.

 

The Republican Party is likely to witness an ideological clash as it navigates its post-Trump identity, with establishment Republicans at odds with populists. Nonetheless, GOP operations at national levels and in most states are now dominated by MAGA loyalists, likely making Trump’s perspectives crucial for future directions.

It’s worth noting that Vance is 40 years old, roughly half Trump’s age (who is 78) and younger than Harris, who is 60. Even in 2060, nine presidential elections from now, Vance will still be younger than Trump is currently.