This week’s College Football Playoff rankings promise some significant changes in the top five.

Oregon and Ohio State are set to take the lead as they approach a potential rematch in the Big Ten championship game. This will be the first instance since 2021, when Georgia and Alabama topped the rankings, that two teams from the same conference dominate the second rankings release.

Georgia and Miami, however, will likely fall out of the top five after the Bulldogs suffered a heavy defeat against Mississippi and the Hurricanes were upset by Georgia Tech. This loss drops Georgia into a crowded field vying for a spot in the SEC championship game.

With Miami’s first setback, the Hurricanes will now have to compete with SMU to establish the top team in the ACC. How the committee evaluates these two teams is one of the critical questions as we head into Tuesday’s rankings:

Which Teams Will Move Up into the Top Five?

With Georgia and Miami expected to drop out—and that will create two openings in the top five—it’s a straightforward decision. Penn State and Tennessee are poised to step up and join Oregon, Ohio State, and Texas at the top. Tennessee will not surpass Penn State after defeating Mississippi State, as the Nittany Lions’ victory against Washington is seen as more impressive by the committee.

How Much Will Georgia Drop?

Several elements will influence Georgia’s new ranking. The team’s standing with the committee may suffer following their second SEC loss. However, Georgia’s victories against Texas and a neutral-site win over Clemson should keep them ahead of Mississippi despite their head-to-head loss. Nevertheless, they will fall behind Alabama, who delivered a strong 41-13 win over LSU.

In the end, expect Alabama to rise two spots from the first rankings to No. 9. The Rebels, previously ranked No. 16, should climb into the top 12, pushing aside a couple of one-loss teams—Boise State and SMU. Georgia will likely settle at either No. 10 or No. 11, potentially behind Miami.

Will Miami Remain at the Top of the ACC?

It’s quite possible, despite their recent loss to Georgia Tech. But whether they truly deserve to be the ACC leader is up for debate.

Both Miami and SMU have victories against Louisville and Duke, but SMU also boasts wins over TCU and Pittsburgh, along with a more respectable loss—a close defeat to Brigham Young in non-conference play. If the committee were to evaluate them directly, SMU would likely have the stronger profile.

Nevertheless, given that the committee insists each week is treated independently, the significant gap in rankings (nine spots) between these teams might be challenging for SMU to bridge, particularly since they didn’t compete this past weekend. Miami will probably drop somewhere between No. 10 and No. 12 but should remain just ahead of the Mustangs.

Can Indiana Stay Ahead of Brigham Young?

It appears so, despite Indiana’s difficulty on offense in a narrow 20-15 victory against Michigan. That was the first game of the season where the Hoosiers scored fewer than 31 points and their first outing decided by less than 14 points. BYU had a chance to capitalize by securing a clear road victory over rival Utah but only managed to escape with a 22-21 win, which included a contentious penalty that extended their game-winning drive. Both teams are likely to move up the rankings, with Indiana staying ahead at No. 6 and BYU right behind at No. 7.

How Many Teams from the Big Ten and SEC Will Be Ranked?

The number should remain stable at twelve, even if one team from the SEC drops out compared to last week. The committee could consider dropping LSU after two back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Alabama by a combined 44 points. LSU might even be replaced by 8-2 Tulane, who lost closely to Oklahoma and Kansas State in September but has since won seven games consecutively.

Ultimately, however, LSU is expected to remain ranked, keeping the total count of teams from these two conferences at 13. One SEC team likely to make the rankings after being overlooked last week is South Carolina. The Gamecocks improved to 6-3 after a convincing 28-7 win over Vanderbilt, marking their third consecutive victory. They’ve also endured close losses to LSU (36-33) and Alabama (27-25). Missouri is likely to stay relevant in rankings after narrowly defeating Oklahoma 30-23.

The Big Ten is not expected to add any further teams. Iowa and Minnesota were candidates, but both teams suffered tough defeats to UCLA and Rutgers, respectively. The conference will, however, have four teams at the top: Oregon at No. 1, Ohio State at No. 2, Penn State at No. 4, and Indiana at No. 6.