In various regions of the United States, particularly in Appalachia, New England, and the Northwest, residents are facing significant challenges in preparing for and coping with flooding due to three distinct factors.
These findings come from a recent study conducted by the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability.
“It’s deeply concerning and often keeps me awake at night,” commented Joshua Newell, a professor at the school’s Center for Sustainable Systems and the study’s senior author. “The communities that are most vulnerable to severe flooding are also the ones that are the least prepared and most unlikely to become prepared.”
He has labeled this three-dimensional vulnerability as “triple exposure.”
The first aspect of this vulnerability is that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has misjudged the flood risks present in numerous counties throughout the nation. Secondly, indicators of social vulnerability, such as low income and limited mobility, hinder individuals from taking preventive action, evacuating before floods occur, and recovering and rebuilding after flood events.
Finally, in some communities, there exists a widespread disbelief in the reality of climate change.
“It’s not just the issue of flooding; it’s also that socially vulnerable groups face an additional layer of risk because they are unprepared and unaware of the dangers they confront,” stated Dimitrios Gounaridis, a research specialist at U-M and a co-author of the new report.
Geographically, the researchers discovered that triple exposure was particularly acute in Appalachia, an area severely impacted by flooding following Hurricane Helene. The study was nearing publication when Helene struck the U.S.
“Regrettably, this paper has become quite timely,” Gounaridis remarked.
The regions most severely impacted by the floods from Hurricane Helene, such as Asheville, North Carolina, were just west of the Appalachian area highlighted as having triple exposure by the researchers. They noted that the disaster emphasizes how dangers amplify when people don’t recognize their risks.
“Asheville was believed to be a safe zone in terms of climate,” Newell pointed out, referring to it as a place that would be shielded from the harshest effects of climate change.
“It’s evident from our study that it, or at least the surrounding region, is not. This truly underscores the necessity for preparedness in these high-risk areas and the urgency of undertaking that work,” he added.
To determine regions facing triple exposure, the team merged what Gounaridis described as numerous data layers. This included findings from a national Yale University survey on climate perceptions, data from a federal social vulnerability index, and flood risk estimates at the household level from the nonprofit First Street Foundation, which is considered more modern and accurate than FEMA’s.
This approach not only identified regions with significant flood risks but also highlighted opportunities to assist communities in enhancing their preparedness and resilience, according to Wanja Waweru, who participated in the project while earning her master’s degree at U-M.
“This could involve educational campaigns to help individuals better understand climate change or policies aimed at alleviating poverty, allowing people to have the additional resources necessary for evacuation or rebuilding after a disaster,” she explained.
“I believe agencies and organizations in these regions should continue their efforts to help individuals understand their risks. Hopefully, this research can reveal ways to engage them effectively.”
