A recent study reveals that implementing just four specific policies could lead to a 91% reduction in mismanaged plastic waste—plastic that isn’t recycled or disposed of properly, causing pollution. Additionally, these measures could decrease plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by one-third. The proposed policies include: requiring that new products contain 40% post-consumer recycled plastic; limiting new plastic production to 2020 levels; significantly investing in plastic waste management systems, like landfills and waste collection; and introducing a small charge for plastic packaging. Collectively, these initiatives would also result in substantial climate benefits, equivalent to removing 300 million gasoline-powered vehicles from the road for an entire year.
A recent study published in Science today reveals that implementing just four specific policies could lead to a 91% reduction in mismanaged plastic waste—plastic that isn’t recycled or properly disposed, contributing to pollution. Additionally, these measures could decrease plastic-related greenhouse gas emissions by one-third. The proposed policies include: requiring that new products contain 40% post-consumer recycled plastic; capping new plastic production at 2020 levels; investing significantly in plastic waste management solutions, such as landfills and waste collection systems; and introducing a small fee for plastic packaging. These combined efforts would yield climate benefits comparable to removing 300 million gasoline-powered cars from the roads for a year.
The study, titled “Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,” was conducted by researchers from the University of California Berkeley and the University of California Santa Barbara. It comes ahead of important negotiations in Busan, South Korea, from November 25 to December 1, where representatives from over 190 countries will finalize the world’s first legally binding treaty addressing plastic pollution.
“This is it. These upcoming negotiations in Busan represent our one opportunity to unite as a global community and tackle this issue,” stated Dr. Douglas McCauley, a professor at UC Santa Barbara and an adjunct professor at UC Berkeley. “One of the most exciting findings from our research is that it is indeed possible to significantly curb plastic pollution through this Treaty. I am cautiously optimistic, but we must not waste this unprecedented opportunity.”
If no action is taken during the Busan negotiations, plastic consumption is projected to grow by 37% from 2020 to 2050, while plastic pollution will nearly double over the same period.
“This study highlights the progress we have made not only in quantifying the various challenges associated with plastics but also in pinpointing and assessing potential solutions,” remarked Dr. Roland Geyer, a professor of industrial ecology at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at UC Santa Barbara. “I take great pride in what our team has accomplished in preparation for the final round of negotiations on the Global Plastics Treaty.”
If we continue with our current practices, it is estimated that the global litter generated from 2011 to 2050 could accumulate to a mass significant enough to cover Manhattan with plastic ten times taller than the Empire State Building. In this scenario, greenhouse gas emissions linked to plastics would rise by 37% from 2020 levels to 3.35 gigatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent by 2050—an amount equivalent to the annual emissions from nearly 9,000 natural gas power plants or the energy consumption of over 436 million homes for a year.
“Negotiators have several pathways to consider, but achieving results requires ambition,” said Sam Pottinger, a senior research data scientist at the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment at UC Berkeley. “Our aim is to ensure that the treaty is informed by data. As we approach the treaty’s completion before ratification, we want negotiators to understand the progress made according to the best scientific data available.”
Countries in the Global South are expected to bear the heaviest burden of the plastic crisis. The financing mechanisms included in the treaty could foster essential investments in waste management and recycling infrastructure in these regions, addressing a significant global environmental justice issue.
“I have hope for a sustainable future,” commented Dr. Nivedita Biyani, a researcher specializing in global plastic modeling at the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory at UC Santa Barbara. “This policy work demonstrates that we can minimize mismanaged plastic waste if we collaborate effectively. It offers policymakers a flexible tool that is not prescriptive, allowing them to combine various policies as they deem appropriate. Moving forward, establishing a system to collect data on plastic production and trade will be crucial for achieving transparency in the supply chain.”
The study leverages insights from an AI-generated tool developed by an interdisciplinary team of plastic researchers, data scientists, and AI specialists from the Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory and Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at UC Santa Barbara, along with the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science & Environment at UC Berkeley. This tool employs machine learning to merge data on population growth and economic trends to project future scenarios in plastic production, pollution, and trade.
