As Election Day approaches in less than 50 days, current polls indicate a tight race between the U.S. presidential candidates.

On Tuesday, analyst Nate Silver presented findings showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in the national average polls by nearly three percentage points, with figures at 48.9% for Harris and 46% for Trump.

While Harris holds a three-point lead nationwide, Silver’s Electoral College prediction suggests she has just a 25% probability of winning the popular vote yet still losing in the Electoral College.

Silver’s analysis as of Tuesday indicates that Trump is favored at 56.2% to secure the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 43.5% chance.

This outlook differs significantly from other projections, including those from Silver’s previous platform, FiveThirtyEight, which as of Tuesday estimated Harris has a 61% chance of winning the Electoral College, creating a nearly 18-point discrepancy between the two forecasts.

YSL News/Suffolk University poll indicates Harris is ahead in Pennsylvania

The poll released on Monday by YSL News/Suffolk University shows Harris leading Trump by three points in Pennsylvania, recording 49% to Trump’s 46%.

The statewide survey included 500 likely voters in Pennsylvania and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, indicating the race remains competitive.

Additionally, the poll revealed that voters in Pennsylvania generally view the vice president more favorably than Trump, with 49% holding a positive opinion of Harris versus 43% for the former president.

Results from Monday’s poll also found that Harris is ahead in two pivotal counties, Erie and Northampton.

YSL News/Suffolk University confirms Harris’s national lead

Harris’s position has improved significantly following President Joe Biden’s challenging debate in June, showing an eight-point shift for the Democratic ticket with her leading Trump 47.6% to 43.3% across the nation.

This lead of over four points marks a stark change from a June poll where Trump was ahead by nearly four points over Biden.

Furthermore, Harris has experienced a notable 24-point gain among young voters, an 18-point increase among Hispanic voters, and a 17-point rise among Black voters, as indicated by the poll.

Betting markets show support for Harris

The dynamics of the race have shifted not only within the polls, but also in the betting markets, where Harris is currently favored to win in November.

According to Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer betting platform in the U.K., and Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform, Harris is leading Trump by 5 and 2 points respectively.

This reflects a significant drop for Trump, whose odds at the Republican National Convention were as high as 70% on Betfair. As of Tuesday, Trump’s odds have decreased to 45%, marking a drop of more than 30 points since July.

Fernando Cervantes Jr. is a trending news reporter for YSL News. You can follow him on X @fern_cerv_.