Analyzing College Football Playoff Predictions: 12-Team Field After Week 6
The excitement of Week 6 in the 2024 college football season has been widely discussed due to its unpredictability.
These dramatic upsets impacted the projected College Football Playoff landscape, along with the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 rankings.
Vanderbilt’s surprising victory over then-No. 2 Alabama marked the weekend’s most shocking upset, causing Alabama’s playoff prospects to take a significant hit. This loss came right after Kalen DeBoer’s team had a notable win against Georgia, which had positioned Alabama just behind Texas for the No. 1 ranking.
In contrast, Alabama’s defeat has allowed Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns to seize the clear No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, even though they had a bye week.
No. 2 Ohio State, however, maintained its position in the playoff chase after a strong second half against Iowa, keeping their undefeated season record at 5-0. They now face a significant test as they head to No. 3 Oregon.
Here’s a snapshot of the current projected 12-team College Football Playoff if the season were to end today, following the Week 6 outcomes:
Updated College Football Playoff Predictions Following Week 6
Seedings are determined based on this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and the criteria of the College Football Playoff format:
- Texas*
- Ohio State*
- Miami*
- Iowa State*
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Penn State
- Alabama
- Ole Miss
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Boise State
* Teams receiving a first-round bye
As it stands, the four top-ranked conference champions with byes include No. 1 Texas (ranked No. 1 in Coaches Poll), No. 2 Ohio State (No. 2), No. 3 Miami (No. 6), and No. 4 Iowa State (No. 13), which outpaced BYU, Utah, and Kansas State in this week’s rankings.
Boise State claimed the automatic Group of Five bid after UNLV’s loss to Syracuse. Despite Notre Dame’s higher ranking in the Coaches Poll, they cannot qualify for this automatic bid due to their independent status.
Projected CFP Matchup Bracket After Week 6
This season, for the first time in the history of the College Football Playoff, first-round games will occur on the campuses of the higher-seeded at-large teams. Based on this week’s Coaches Poll, here’s how the first-round matchups would look if the playoffs started today:
- No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State
- No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 LSU
- No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Tennessee
- No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 Ole Miss.
Following these matches, No. 1 Texas will face the winner of Alabama-Ole Miss, No. 2 Ohio State will take on the winner of Penn State-Tennessee, No. 3 Miami will battle the winner of Georgia-LSU, and No. 4 Iowa State will meet the winner of Oregon-Boise State during the quarterfinals, known as the New York Six Bowls.
The rest of the CFP will flow in the same manner as it did from 2014 to 2023, with two semifinal games determining which teams advance to the national championship.
College Football Playoff Schedule and Dates
Here are the confirmed dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff:
- First round: Friday, December 20 – Saturday, December 21
- Quarterfinals: Tuesday, December 31 – Wednesday, January 1
- Semifinals: Thursday, January 9 – Friday, January 10
- National championship: Monday, January 20
