(This report has been updated with new details.)

A storm brewing in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, with landfall predicted along the Gulf Coast as early as Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center announced on Monday afternoon that the storm—which is still classified as a “potential cyclone” but will soon be named Helene—is likely to reach speeds of 115 mph when it makes landfall, categorizing it as a significant Category 3 storm. Tropical storm watches were issued late Monday for parts of the Florida Keys as the storm steadily advances northward.

“Everyone in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region should be ready for hurricane effects,” stated Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert, who noted that this storm has the potential to be the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season.

Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut from WeatherTiger pointed out in a social media update, “Helene is coming faster than you expect, so get into hurricane preparation mode now. While there’s still some uncertainty regarding its exact path and strength, Florida is likely to feel the impacts.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced a state of emergency on Monday for 41 counties near the Gulf Coast in response to the storm’s threats. His declaration indicated substantial risks for storm surges and flooding, particularly in areas still recovering from Hurricane Debby’s lingering impacts.

Most prediction models indicate a landfall for the hurricane somewhere in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday, according to meteorologist Jonathan Erdman from Weather.com.

Designated as “potential tropical cyclone nine” on Monday morning, it will receive the name Helene once it officially becomes a tropical storm, which is anticipated to occur overnight.

Tropical storm alerts and hurricane watches have also been issued for regions of western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

Gulf Coast Residents Urged to Act Quickly

Unlike many hurricanes that take days or weeks to traverse the Atlantic and provide early warnings, this storm is set to develop and strengthen rapidly once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now is the critical time to start preparation for landfall along the Gulf Coast. Do not wait for the storm to receive its official name,” advised meteorologist Jon Porter from AccuWeather.

He indicated that there is a possibility of this storm developing into a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds between 111-129 mph.

Porter noted that this could be the defining storm of the 2024 hurricane season.

Current Status of the System

Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, shared in a late afternoon update on Monday that the system is forecasted to become a tropical storm overnight.

“Latest data and satellite images indicate that it is beginning to organize,” he shared.

As of 5 p.m., the system was located approximately 450 miles south of Key West, Florida.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the Keys by 8 p.m. on Wednesday, continuing northward across Florida overnight into Thursday.

“This storm’s wind field is notably large, bigger than what is usually seen with a typical hurricane, causing significant storm surges in the western regions of Florida’s peninsula,” explained Rhome.

The Hurricane Hunters were deployed to investigate the developing storm on Monday, as reported.

Potential for Rapid Intensification

Forecasters at the hurricane center are warning that the storm could ramp up quickly once in the Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching wind speeds of 110 mph.

According to a discussion held on Monday, the “environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive to considerable strengthening.” One forecasting model indicates there’s a 95% likelihood that the storm’s wind speeds could increase by 75 mph or more within the next 72 hours.

Helene could potentially develop into a powerful hurricane in the Gulf, as stated by Erdman, who emphasized that there is an abundance of warm, deep waters in the northwest Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico available to intensify the storm.

Moreover, Erdman noted that the heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is at unprecedented high levels for this time of year, according to Brian McNoldy, a tropical scientist from the University of Miami.

Expected Effects of Helene

Wind: Sustained winds of at least 115 mph are anticipated, with gusts reaching up to 120 mph expected in the areas where the storm makes landfall on Thursday.

Rain: Widespread rainfall of 8-12 inches is likely, which could result in significant flooding. Rainfall will likely start affecting the Keys as early as late Tuesday afternoon or early evening and will then move northward.

Information from the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network indicates significant weather developments.

Power Disruptions: Power outages are predicted to affect the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend area, and much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee, along with some areas of far western South Carolina and North Carolina, as reported by AccuWeather.

Tornado Threat: The storm also poses a significant risk of tornadoes as it draws closer later this week.

High Surf Alerts: The hurricane center has issued warnings stating that wave heights in the southeastern Gulf could reach 15 feet by Wednesday morning, with peaks possibly hitting 25-30 feet by Thursday morning.

Storm Surge Risks

As the hurricane approaches the Gulf Coast, storm surge remains a serious hazard. The highest probability of experiencing significant storm surge occurs close to where the storm makes landfall.

The latest analysis from the hurricane center indicates that areas along the coast from Cape Coral to Alligator Point could have a 10% chance of experiencing a storm surge exceeding 9 feet. The potential for storm surge increases with stronger winds.

Fourth Hurricane Landfall of the Year?

If the storm makes landfall as a hurricane, it would mark the fourth hurricane to do so on the mainland United States this year, following storms Beryl, Debby, and Francine.

Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist from Colorado State University, noted that only three years since 2000—2004, 2005, and 2020—have experienced four landfalling hurricanes.

Predictions of an ‘Extraordinary Season’

Federal meteorologists predicted an “extraordinary” hurricane season this year, with up to 24 potential named storms expected.

For context, a regular hurricane season typically averages 14 named storms based on records from 1991 to 2020.

Hurricane John Approaches Mexico

Meanwhile, Hurricane John is strengthening as it nears the southern coast of Mexico. The current forecast indicates it will reach the southern coast in one to two days and move inland by Tuesday or Wednesday.

The hurricane center warns of “damaging hurricane-force winds, a hazardous storm surge, and life-threatening flash flooding” anticipated in parts of southern Mexico.

Remaining Hurricane Names for This Season

The remaining names in the Atlantic hurricane name list for this year are:

Helene

Isaac

Joyce

Kirk

Leslie

Milton

Nadine

Oscar

Patty

Rafael

Sara

Tony

Valerie

William

Contributions by: Dinah Voyles Pulver, YSL News; Cheryl McCloud, YSL News Network