The phrase ‘Digital Twin of the Earth’ suggests the existence of a precise virtual version of our planet that allows scientists to foresee complex climate changes and extreme natural occurrences. Achieving this type of realistic projection of Earth’s systems is the aim of the Destination Earth project.
The concept of a Digital Twin of the Earth implies that a precise virtual duplicate of our planet can be accessed, facilitating the prediction of intricate climatic changes and severe natural events. This kind of replica—or model reflection of Earth’s systems—aligns with the objectives of the Destination Earth project, which receives funding from the European Union. Initiated in 2022, this major project is a cornerstone of the European Commission’s Green Deal initiatives and has faced some criticism. “Recently, we have encountered numerous highly critical studies and reports on this topic, and we are joining this important dialogue,” noted Professor Robert Reinecke from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU).
In a publication featured in Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, Reinecke and fellow authors emphasize the ambiguity surrounding the definition of “Digital Twin of the Earth,” which can be misleading. “Any digital representation of our planet is a model. Thus, it will always be separate from reality—just as a map can never fully replicate the terrain it represents,” Reinecke explained. As a specialist in Earth system modeling, the geoscientist from Mainz appreciates the advanced simulation models as valuable tools for testing and analyzing theories about the world in ways that are not otherwise achievable. However, he stresses that new methods and frameworks are needed to ensure these models are accurately applied and interpreted.
EU’s Destination Earth initiative to aid climate change responsiveness
Destination Earth (DestinE) is a prominent initiative from the European Commission, focused on creating an exceptionally accurate digital model of the Earth—our planet’s digital twin. This project utilizes Europe’s High-performance computing resources (EuroHPC), including Finland’s LUMI supercomputer, alongside Artificial Intelligence capabilities. Currently, DestinE is generating various digital models that represent different aspects of the Earth system. By 2030, a complete digital replica of the Earth is anticipated, which will enhance the precision of monitoring and predicting the consequences of climate change and natural disasters, as well as support the development of adaptation strategies and mitigation measures. The Digital Twin concept has also been adopted in other sectors: for instance, the German Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is working on an intelligent 3D digital model of Germany, and the government of Rhineland-Palatinate is executing a digital “hydro-twin” initiative.
Misperception of an unattainable actual depiction / Clarifying the gap between reality and scientific models
Professor Robert Reinecke, alongside his co-authors, Professor Francesca Pianosi from the University of Bristol in the UK and Alexander von Humboldt Professor Thorsten Wagener from the University of Potsdam, view the term Digital Twin of the Earth as problematic and misleading. They explain that “it implies we can construct a digital model that rigorously tests the Earth system’s structural features to any desired accuracy,” which is not true. “Every model simplifies reality and involves assumptions that inevitably introduce uncertainties,” the researchers added. “We thus advocate for moving away from the term Digital Twin of the Earth,” Reinecke asserted.
Investment in methodologies to ensure correct model and data usage
Reinecke and his team at the JGU Institute of Geography utilize models that encompass the entire planet, and he understands the rationale behind the EU initiative. Simulation models serve as outstanding digital laboratories, allowing scientists to examine and validate their assumptions about the world in ways not possible through physical experiments. However, according to Reinecke, producing high-resolution models does not automatically enhance understanding and outcomes. Moreover, there is a need for new methodologies to enable researchers to effectively apply these complex models. Simulation models typically require numerous runs—thousands to millions— to dissect how the model operates and assess which factors influence results, such as whether specific input data impacts outcomes. “Investment in new methods and methodologies is crucial to ensure our models are utilized appropriately. We have already outlined initial ideas, and my team will continue to explore this moving forward.”
Ultimately, Reinecke and his co-authors assess whether the concept of a Digital Twin of the Earth poses a risk, suggesting that the “mechanical view of nature” could undermine democratic principles, as such models might be exploited as political tools for justification and control. They refer to the cautionary tale of the map maker tasked with creating an infallible map. In their contribution to Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, they express: “Such a map is just as unattainable as a flawless digital representation of reality. Scientists and policymakers must not succumb to this illusion.”
