CHICAGO − Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suddenly exited the presidential race and endorsed Donald Trump, creating ripples in the 2024 election with just 74 days remaining until voters head to the polls. However, the impact on Trump’s campaign is still uncertain.

Polls indicate that Trump might gain from Kennedy’s decision to pause his campaign. Kennedy, who is known for conspiracy theories, environmental advocacy, and as the son of the renowned liberal Robert F. Kennedy, has left some analysts unsure about the actual benefits for Trump.

“It really doesn’t change national polling much,” commented David Paleologos, director at the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “The real question is how it will play out in swing states, and the evidence suggests any impact will be limited.”

Kennedy’s endorsement could hurt Trump due to the increasingly negative impressions voters hold of him, despite Trump’s own history of controversy.

Kennedy made his endorsement for Trump clear in a lengthy speech where he also took aim at Vice President Kamala Harris and expressed his frustrations with the Democratic Party.

He indicated that he would still appear on ballots in several states but planned to withdraw his name from around ten battleground states. However, he proposed an unlikely scenario wherein he might become a negotiated president if both Trump and Harris were to tie in the Electoral College.

Throughout the election cycle, many Democrats have characterized Kennedy as an “election spoiler,” suggesting his campaign could draw votes away from President Joe Biden in favor of Trump. However, polling began to reveal that after Harris became the Democratic nominee, Kennedy’s presence seemed to be harming Trump more than helping.

Before Biden’s exit, a YSL News/Suffolk University survey from June indicated that 32% of Kennedy supporters saw Trump as their second choice, while 18% chose Biden. The remaining 26% were undecided, with others leaning toward third-party candidates.

The same survey found that 42% of Republican voters held a favorable view of Kennedy, along with 36% of independents, but only 17% of Democrats shared that sentiment.

A more recent poll covering seven battleground states revealed that 45% of Kennedy supporters in these areas preferred Trump as their second choice, compared to 26% for Harris. Nevertheless, Kennedy’s overall support among likely voters in these states has dwindled to just 5%, down from 8% in May.

Kennedy, who had scaled back his campaign activities earlier, is seen as having tapped into some unusual tactics during his run. Anecdotes have surfaced about his past, including an incident where he placed the body of a deceased bear cub in Central Park and recent claims about health issues, including allegations of sexual misconduct from the 1990s. Additionally, a judge prevented him from appearing on the ballot in New York due to false residency claims.

Since Harris entered the race, her polling performance appears to have improved slightly, especially when third-party candidates are included. For instance, a recent Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin revealed Trump in the lead at 50%-49% in a direct matchup, while Harris outpaced Trump 45%-43% when third-party candidates, like Kennedy and academic Cornel West, were included. Kennedy captured 8% of support among registered voters in Wisconsin.

However, overall polls indicate that Kennedy isn’t widely liked among the general voter population. The Cook Political Report found that he has an unfavorable rating of 45% against a favorable view from 39% nationally.

Furthermore, his electoral support has been declining, now sitting around 4.5% according to Real Clear Politics, which is significantly lower than the 11% seen in early May. This reflects the trend that third-party candidates often begin with higher popularity in the spring than closer to the election date.

In tightly contested states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where results can be determined by a few thousand votes, even small changes could be pivotal.

Paleologos anticipates that both Trump and Harris will adjust their strategies to engage former Kennedy supporters to see where they can gain additional backing.

A significant advantage for Harris may come from the 18% of Kennedy supporters who are independent women, as indicated in the June YSL News/Suffolk University poll, alongside the 13% who are aged 29 or younger. In contrast, Trump may benefit from the 16% of Kennedy supporters who have trade or vocational training, and the 15% who identify as independent men, a demographic he tends to attract more effectively than Harris.

“The intelligent campaign will ensure different strategies for each of these targeted voter groups,” said Paleologos.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’ campaign chair, recently remarked during a panel discussion in Chicago organized by Politico that Kennedy’s departure is unlikely to significantly influence the race.

“We are very confident that the vice president will prevail, whether she is running against a single opponent or multiple candidates,” O’Malley Dillon stated, noting Kennedy’s declining poll numbers after a peak in the previous spring. “As the American public becomes more familiar with him, we see a decreasing level of support, along with a perception that his views are becoming more extreme.”

Conversely, the Trump campaign views Kennedy’s endorsement as a significant asset that could assist the Republican nominee in crucial swing states. Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio noted in a memo that the number of voters likely switching from Kennedy to Trump in states like Arizona might exceed Biden’s margins of victory in those areas during the 2020 election.

“When you witness or hear the Harris team and/or Democrats attempting to spin this differently, keep in mind that the data tells a different story,” Fabrizio emphasized. “This is undoubtedly favorable news for President Trump and his campaign – it’s clear cut.”

Mary Beth Cahill, a senior adviser for the Democratic National Committee, expressed her sentiments with “good riddance.”

“The more voters discover about RFK Jr., the less they seem to appreciate him,” she pointed out. “Donald Trump isn’t gaining an endorsement that will enhance his support; instead, he’s taking on the burden of a failed candidate on the fringe.”

Cahill, a seasoned Democratic strategist, previously served as chief of staff to the late Senator Ted Kennedy from Massachusetts, who was Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s uncle.

Contact Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.