Watch Out, NFL Rookie Quarterbacks: A Major Reality Check Awaits
Phil Simms has an important message for the rookie quarterbacks starting their NFL careers: The preseason is nothing like the real deal. A tougher challenge is imminent.
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix, who stood out in training camps and exhibition games, are well aware of the faster and more intricate challenges that await them in the regular season.
They will soon experience this firsthand.
“There will be better players coming after you. More disciplined defenders keeping you in the pocket. Each part of the game is really different,” Simms, a former Super Bowl MVP and seasoned analyst, shared with YSL News Sports. “And they will thoroughly gameplan against you.”
This might explain why Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton added some humor when he announced Nix as the starter on Wednesday.
“We didn’t have cake and candles,” Payton joked.
Nix, who beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson for the position, was the last first-round quarterback selected in a draft that saw a record six quarterbacks chosen within the first twelve picks. Simms believes Nix had a tougher path to becoming a starter than his peers.
“What Sean asks from quarterbacks can be really tough,” said Simms, who used to play for the New York Giants and co-hosts the podcast “Simms Complete” with his son, Matt, available on YouTube.
“The playcalling, everything he expects from you to reach the right play—it’s all right out of the book when it comes to Sean Payton. But the good news is, Bo Nix is perfect for that; he’s already used to it, being the son of a coach.”
Williams, the overall No. 1 draft pick, took a different route to the Chicago Bears’ starting lineup. The former USC star was appointed as the starter back in May, even before his first rookie practice. He has consistently taken first-team reps since then.
Daniels also quickly secured the starting position for the Washington Commanders. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, selected with the second pick, gradually took over first-team activities, distancing himself from veteran Marcus Mariota.
On the other hand, it remains uncertain when Drake Maye, drafted third by the New England Patriots, will overtake veteran Jacoby Brissett as the starter. Although it’s unlikely to happen by Week 1, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt hasn’t completely ruled it out during recent discussions.
The comparisons between this group of quarterbacks, which mirrors the six first-round quarterbacks drafted in 1983 led by John Elway, are bound to continue as stories and developments unfold.
Could Michael Penix Jr., the eighth pick by the Atlanta Falcons, emerge as the most valuable player from this draft class? Simms believes Penix has the best arm of the group and is optimistic about his potential. However, barring any emergencies, Penix is set to start his career as the backup to Kirk Cousins.
Additionally, Penix won’t get another chance to showcase his skills before the regular season, as Falcons coach Raheem Morris stated last weekend that Penix would not play again in the preseason—an opportunity usually reserved for starters. Morris insisted that he has seen enough of Penix in practice.
“I just wish I knew their reasoning for not playing him more,” Simms commented, who has spent the last few years analyzing NFL games for “The NFL Today” on CBS. “I’m curious about their logic. I just want to see more of him before the season starts.”
The last first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, drafted 10th, won’t get another chance to play until next season. McCarthy was on track to compete with Sam Darnold for a starting position with the Minnesota Vikings but suffered a torn meniscus, which has sidelined him for the entire season.
“That’s a really unfortunate situation,” said Simms about the former Michigan star. “He looked more impressive in the pro environment than he did in college because they allowed him to really play.”
Having watched every preseason game this month, Simms has shared his thoughts on the rookie quarterbacks:
- On Williams: “If there’s one concern, it’s that he may depend too much on his ability to make plays while moving around. Last game against Cincinnati showcased some highlight-reel plays, which were impressive. However, as we enter the regular season, those moments may become less frequent…His talent is extraordinary, and I believe he will succeed, but there will definitely be challenges ahead.”
- On Daniels: “He is remarkably composed under pressure. He plays with an unmatched calmness that I haven’t seen in a long time. He throws the ball with excellent timing, runs efficiently, and is incredibly quick. His speed is effortless, and he’s very precise with his throws, which safeguards his receivers. What he showed in the preseason with his ball placement should translate well to the regular season.”
- On Maye: “I never grasp this: They often try to make everything so safe, fearing he’ll struggle. If he lacks confidence from a few mistakes, he’s not the right choice for the job. Let him play and learn from his errors instead.”
- On Penix: “His performance against Miami was promising.
- I was hoping to witness more from him, considering the exceptional talent I believe he possesses. He made several impressive throws that seemed effortless. I’d like to see an increase in his mobility, specifically his ability to maneuver within the pocket.
- On McCarthy: “During the game in Minnesota against the Raiders, he was letting loose, connecting with players down the field, playing more freely, and utilizing his speed effectively on the NFL stage. His throwing arm was not just good; it was outstanding. He shows better power as a thrower than as a traditional passer. That’s thanks to (Vikings coach) Kevin O’Connell. I’m not sure who O’Connell truly wanted to draft, but it seems he got fortunate with the one who fits his system better than the others.”
- On Nix: “Bo appeared to be playing as if he was still at Oregon. He was effective from the shotgun, quickly delivering the ball, making off-balance throws, and showcasing more power than many give him credit for. Managing an offense that requires more from him than any other rookie quarterback in the NFL is certainly a challenging task.”
The payoff is imminent. Simms isn’t concerned that Nix will be overwhelmed by the intense Seattle crowd in Week 1, similar to the challenging environments at Oregon State or Washington. However, the Seahawks’ defense poses a more significant challenge. The new coach in Seattle, Mike Macdonald, earned his position due to his knack for creating innovative defensive strategies while with the Baltimore Ravens.
“Get ready,” warns Simms, “because it’s going to be tough.”
This advice isn’t just meant for Nix. Williams, Daniels, and maybe even Maye and Penix should also take this message to heart.
Indeed, they have all shown impressive performances over the summer. Daniels successfully completed 80% of his passes during the preseason games. Similarly, like Nix, he also avoided throwing interceptions and didn’t get sacked. Williams wowed fans with his ability to throw and run simultaneously. Nix managed to score points on six out of his seven preseason possessions.
There was a reason six quarterbacks were drafted within the top 12 picks, and their potential has certainly been showcased to some extent.
“But let’s not forget this final point,” Simms remarked. “He did spectacularly during the preseason.”
However, that might not represent the actual competition. Those standout preseason performances could potentially be misleading.