Big Ten is overrated, SEC is underrated: college football Week 12 overreactions
Oscar Wilde famously noted that the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about at all. At Overreaction HQ, we’re immersed in the ongoing debates among fan bases advocating for their teams or criticizing others, especially now that the majority of the college football regular season has concluded.
The College Football Playoff Committee’s rankings, released weekly, fuel these discussions, even though they won’t have real impact until the final bracket is set. While these talks can sometimes be tedious, many view them as essential, especially those whose role is to comment on the sport’s landscape, including us.
Below are the top five overreactions stirring the pot following Week 12.
Big Ten is overrated.
Currently, the 12-team playoff structure limits the at-large pool to seven teams, with three of those slots widely expected to go to Big Ten teams unless there are major surprises in the last two weeks. This scenario could lead to four total Big Ten representatives, including the eventual conference champion.
It’s no surprise that many of the loudest critics of the Big Ten invitees are from SEC fans. We’ll touch on the SEC’s perspective shortly. However, it’s worth noting that the current Big Ten teams in the top five of the US LBM Coaches Poll have successfully avoided hurtful losses to lower-ranked teams.
Moreover, a common argument suggests that Alabama would likely win against Indiana, but this doesn’t factor into the committee’s judgments. Bookmakers set lines based on public views, and their goal is to balance bets on both sides, not to predict scores. The reality is, underdogs win often, so the idea that being favored carries weight in rankings or seeding discussions isn’t valid.
SEC is underrated
SEC supporters argue that their teams consistently face tougher challenges each week, which should earn them recognition for their more challenging schedules—leading to more losses as teams take each other down. While it’s true that the SEC is more competitive, this season lacks a standout team; there are many solid squads, but none dominate against their competition.
The major issue in this expanded conference era is that the champion might be decided based on who they did not play, rather than who they did. Texas and Texas A&M lead the standings, and their upcoming match will determine a spot in the championship game. However, among the two-loss teams, Texas has only faced Georgia, while neither team has played Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Alabama. This isn’t an isolated issue for the SEC, but as long as conference titles are essential for playoff eligibility, leagues must ensure that they identify the true best team.
BYU brings Big 12 down with it.
Brigham Young’s loss to Kansas late at night has likely edged the Big 12 closer to being a one-bid conference. They were already in danger, with the Cougars as the only likely at-large candidate, assuming they had lost only in the title game.
Additionally, this setback has impacted the champion’s chances of earning a first-round bye. BYU might still have the best odds, but they need to win all their remaining games and hope that SMU secures the ACC title for a non-conference win against another Power Four champion.
Louisville drags down the ACC.
The ACC suffered a significant blow due to Louisville’s last-minute loss to struggling Stanford. This loss also negatively affected SMU and Miami while making Clemson’s earlier defeat to Louisville look worse.
The silver lining for the ACC is that Miami’s earlier victory over Florida has gained importance, and Clemson has a chance to improve their standings with another notable game against South Carolina soon. Still, an at-large bid appears unlikely, and both the Big 12 and ACC must hope their eventual champions rank among the top five FBS conference winners (see last week’s situation with Boise State and Army).
The Notre Dame question
If you support a team looking for at-large opportunities, you might want Army to beat Notre Dame this week, which would eliminate the Irish from contention. However, this could be disadvantageous for teams still in the race in the Big 12 or ACC, as you wouldn’t want the Black Knights to claim a spot alongside Boise State.
If you’re aiming to stay in the game, hoping for an Army loss—whether to the Irish or Tulane in the American Athletic Conference finale—might be a strategy you consider. Sure, this view may not win you any popularity points at social events, but prioritizing your team is key, isn’t it?
To be honest, this reaction might just be a tad extreme.