Disregard Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day forecast for 2025 ‒ Here’s what meteorologists have to say about the likelihood of an early spring.

It’s no surprise that those hoping for an early spring should head towards the south, where spring-like signs are already emerging. “The shift toward warmer spring weather is occurring earlier than usual from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast,” noted AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in an email to YSL News last Friday.

“There may be some temporary cold spells, but warmer air is returning to Florida and the Gulf Coast states,” he added.

Federal scientists from the Climate Prediction Center, when contacted by email last week, supported AccuWeather’s outlook and indicated that warm temperatures are expected to persist across the southern states throughout February.

Where will winter persist?

The cold weather will continue to affect much of the northern U.S. for the next few weeks. “The shift to spring-like weather will be slow in areas from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and northern Plains. We anticipate a mix of mild periods and colder weather in the coming weeks,” explained Pastelok.

The northwestern region of the U.S. is expected to experience particularly cold temperatures in early February, according to Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Johnna Infanti. “The Northwest and the Northern Plains could see significantly colder-than-normal temperatures at the start of February,” she shared with YSL News via email.

Snow is also a possibility in the Northwestern cities of Seattle and Portland during early February, Pastelok informed YSL News.

What about the polar vortex?

Regarding the polar vortex, Pastelok offered both promising and concerning news: The encouraging part is that we might have already experienced the peak of winter’s cold during the initial weeks of January when a significant cold snap affected much of the country.

On the downside, there are indications of a potential “late disruption” in the polar vortex later in February and early March, which could lead to colder, stormy conditions in the Great Lakes and Northeast. “But this prediction comes with low confidence,” he admitted.

What about wildfires?

Continued dryness in the Southwest will raise wildfire risks in the coming weeks. Pastelok expressed concern about fire hazards in Texas.

What about flooding and tornadoes?

Another trend meteorologists are monitoring during February and March is the possibility of above-average rainfall and potential flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with severe weather in the Deep South.

What will primarily influence the weather in the US in the upcoming months?

“La Niña will be a significant factor affecting weather across the U.S. until at least April, though weekly weather may vary from the typical patterns associated with La Niña,” Infanti stated.

During La Niña, the southern U.S. typically experiences drier conditions, while the Northwest gets more rain and snow.

La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle called El Niño – Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. This cycle alternates between warmer and cooler sea temperatures in a region along the equator of the tropical Pacific. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average ocean water in that area.

Infanti noted that La Niña conditions are currently in place and are expected to continue through February to April 2025, with a likely transition to an ENSO-neutral phase from March to May 2025.