NEW YORK – Over the coming week, the U.S. Open could be more aptly referred to as the US Opportunity.

Following the shocking early departures of No. 3 seed Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic on consecutive days, the men’s tournament has become highly unpredictable.

If you’ve been keeping a close watch, this might not come as a big shock. Alcaraz, after triumphing at the French Open and Wimbledon, and reaching the Olympic finals, seemed to be running on empty. Meanwhile, Djokovic, 37, who was laser-focused on securing an Olympic gold, did not appear sharp in New York, suffering a third-round loss to Alexei Popyrin.

This outcome has resulted in a final 16 that features only one former U.S. Open champion, Daniil Medvedev, the No. 5 seed, and just one additional Grand Slam winner, Jannik Sinner, the top seed. With these two likely to face off in the quarterfinals, the door is wide open for other players seeking to claim a major title.

“With Alcaraz and myself out, and the unexpected outcomes, the draw has become favorable for many,” Djokovic remarked. “Sinner stands out as the primary favorite, but there are many talented players who are performing well. It’s anyone’s game now.”

Currently, Sinner appears to be a significant contender to secure his maiden U.S. Open title and complete the sweep of the year’s hard-court Grand Slams. Despite losing the opening set against Mackenzie McDonald, the 23-year-old Italian has dominated since then.

However, if Sinner doesn’t clinch it, who will? Below is our ranking of the other 15 remaining competitors based on their chances of winning the tournament.

1. Alexander Zverev

The 27-year-old German might be the best player in men’s tennis history without a major title. He has had significant opportunities: He led the 2020 U.S. Open final against Dominic Thiem before losing, and was a set away from winning against Alcaraz in the 2024 French Open, only to falter.

Zverev’s ability to manage pressure at the end of Grand Slam matches remains in question until he finally secures a title. Nonetheless, he stands as the strongest player on the lower half of the draw, potentially making it his time to shine.

2. Daniil Medvedev

Although Medvedev’s recent performances have been underwhelming since Wimbledon, he has a strong affinity for this tournament. He has reached three of the last five U.S. Open finals, showcasing impressive tennis during his victorious run in 2021. Medvedev has a favorable draw but must overcome Sinner, a significant obstacle he has struggled against this past year.

After winning their first six encounters, Medvedev has lost the last five, including the 2023 Australian Open final. However, he turned the tide in their most recent match during the Wimbledon quarterfinals, achieving a hard-fought victory.

3. Taylor Fritz

The American has been showing great form through his initial matches, including an impressive 6-3, 7-6, 6-1 victory over Matteo Berrettini, a former top-10 player who faced challenges this past year due to injury.

Fritz’s strong serving has helped him reach the quarterfinals in three of the last four Grand Slams. His next goal is to advance to a semifinal, potentially against Zverev, which could elevate his confidence significantly.

4. Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe enjoys unparalleled crowd support at this venue. After a challenging previous year, he’s found his rhythm again on the hard courts this summer. Although he has only three ATP titles, all at the 250-level, he tends to elevate his game in New York; he came close to winning the title in 2022, losing to Alcaraz in five sets in the semifinals.

On Sunday evening, Tiafoe will face Popyrin with a supportive crowd in Arthur Ashe Stadium. How will he respond now that the draw has opened up, making him one of the frontrunners?

5. Casper Ruud

The 2022 U.S. Open finalist has faced difficulties in both performance and fitness over the past year, but he seems to be regaining form. His upcoming match against Fritz promises to be one of the tournament’s highlights. While Ruud holds a 2-0 record against Fritz, they have yet to meet on outdoor hard courts, which slightly favors the American.

6. Tommy Paul

Had Paul not faced such challenging matches ahead, his chances of success would be significantly higher. To reach his second Grand Slam semifinal, he must first defeat Sinner in the round of 16, then likely Medvedev. However, at 27, Paul has developed consistency, making a major title within reach, provided the circumstances align perfectly. He has the all-court game and athleticism needed to prevail.

7. Andrey Rublev

The emotionally volatile Russian has made ten Grand Slam quarterfinals but has yet to progress to the semifinals. If he doesn’t succeed now, when will he? Rublev holds a 4-1 record on outdoor hard courts against his friend Grigor Dimitrov, whom he will meet on Sunday. Should he win, he should also be favored to defeat either Tiafoe or Popyrin. However, his game relies heavily on power, lacking variety and possessing a questionable second serve, which limits his advancement in major tournaments.

8. Jack Draper

It’s encouraging to see the 22-year-old Brit with a powerful game begin to realize his potential after a slow start in his Grand Slam journey. However, Draper’s early matches have faced limited competition, including an easy victory in the third round.

After defeating Botic van de Zandschulp, who he was supposed to face in Alcaraz’s absence, Draper has a promising opportunity in the round of 16 against No. 39 Tomas Machac. He might also hold an advantage in the quarterfinals. However, it appears that clinching the title might be a little beyond his current readiness.

9. Alexei Popyrin

Winning against Djokovic marked a significant milestone in Popyrin’s career, but it may not quite rival his victory at the Canadian Masters earlier this month. He possesses powerful skills, yet this is the first time he has advanced past the third round in a Grand Slam event.

10. Alex de Minaur

Ranked No. 10, de Minaur is currently dealing with a hip injury he sustained at Wimbledon, which led to his withdrawal from the quarterfinals there. While he has successfully navigated through three rounds of the Open, he is not at full strength and has mentioned the need to adjust his playstyle to safeguard his hip. This could catch up with him eventually. However, if he regains full health, the consistently strong de Minaur could be an interesting longshot for his first major victory here.

11. Grigor Dimitrov

If Dimitrov, now 33 years old, won the US Open, it would be a heartwarming tale, especially many years after he was seen as a future Grand Slam champion. Nevertheless, that scenario seems unlikely, despite him showcasing some of his finest tennis recently. Staying mentally focused over seven rounds in a major has always posed a challenge for him.

12. Brandon Nakashima

So far, he has had an incredible tournament, highlighted by a third-round upset of Lorenzo Musetti. However, his journey may end there, as he now faces Zverev in the next match.

13. Jordan Thompson

This experienced Australian is enjoying his best year on the tour, recently achieving a career-high ranking of No. 30. He can be quite formidable on fast hard courts, but this marks just his second time reaching the fourth round across 37 Grand Slam tournaments.

14. Tomas Machac

Machac secured an impressive victory in straight sets against No. 16 seed Sebastian Korda in the second round, paving his way towards the second week of the tournament. At this stage, it wouldn’t be surprising if he reaches the semifinals in this relatively open draw, but that might be his limit.

15. Nuno Borges

Following a challenging five-set match against Czech teen sensation Jakub Mensik, Borges astonishingly reaches the round of 16 in his second Grand Slam this year. Starting the year ranked No. 66 globally, his accomplishment of finishing in New York with an estimated new career-high ranking of around No. 30 is significant. Regardless of what occurs from here, this is an excellent achievement for him.