If witnessing a FIFA World Cup soccer final is exhilarating, consider the players, who are experiencing an even greater level of intensity, according to a recent study.
If witnessing a FIFA World Cup soccer final is exhilarating, consider the players, who are experiencing an ever-growing intensity, as indicated by a new study published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
Professor Kevin Norton from the School of Health Sciences at UNSW Sydney examined broadcast footage from 12 FIFA World Cup finals—2014-2022 for the men’s tournament and 1991-2023 for the women’s tournament—to analyze trends in the game.
Prof. Norton utilized advanced computer tracking technology alongside historical video analysis to identify and assess patterns through a method known as retrospective correlation design. This research builds on his earlier work analyzing men’s World Cup finals from 1966 to 2010, culminating in the review of 15 men’s finals (1966-2022) and 9 women’s finals (1991-2023) to measure changes over time in specific gameplay metrics.
“The findings support what fans of the sport likely perceive: both men’s and women’s football is evolving,” explains Prof. Norton.
“Successful strategies tend to endure, whereas less effective approaches fade away,” he notes, as an expert in elite sports performance evolution.
“Analyzing World Cup finals allowed us to identify what practices yield the most success in soccer’s evolution. Remarkably, both men’s and women’s football are progressing along a similar path and at a comparable rate,” he shares.
Halves of the games were studied to identify trends, while extra time (played only if scores are tied at the end of finals) was excluded from this analysis.
The research focused on three main areas: 1) game ‘structure’, including factors like play duration and stoppage periods, 2) ball movement in terms of distance and speed, and 3) passing rates compared to overall playtime and ball movement.
It was discovered that total stoppage time, ball velocity, and passing rates have substantially increased for both men and women, with women’s ball speed advancing more quickly than men’s over the past few decades.
Game structure
Analysis of game play and stoppage patterns revealed that total playtime for both genders has remained approximately the same (around 50 minutes). However, the overall stoppage time has shown a noticeable increase.
Average playtime for women has notably declined from 65% to 55% to align more closely with men’s finals game percentages. Additionally, the length of stoppages has risen for both men and women.
“The rise in stoppage time is likely enabling players to intensify their performance during play due to the chance for physiological recovery,” explains Prof. Norton.
Ball movement
The distance the ball travels during matches has not dramatically changed for men but has increased for women. In contrast, the speed of the ball has significantly risen for both genders, with the speed in women’s soccer increasing at a faster rate, nearing parity with men’s game speeds.
Passing rates
Passing rates continue to rise among both genders, reflecting enhancements in skills and accuracy. Increased passing frequency necessitates improved decision-making, agility, and quick ball control.
Key findings
“Speed is becoming an increasingly vital asset in football, prompting teams to scout for faster players who also possess skillful control when moving quickly. Players must be able to manage ball control nearly instantaneously in dense situations, a significant shift observed over time,” remarks Prof. Norton.
“The growing pace also demands that players make split-second decisions while maintaining accuracy in their passing,” he adds.
The correlation between World Cup success and improved speed suggests that teams will likely concentrate their talent development on players exhibiting these qualities.
“Concurrent training and development will evolve to address the higher physical demands on players, focusing on energy management and strategies to combat fatigue and injuries,” Prof. Norton indicates.
“If these trends persist, attributes like speed, power, quick decision-making, and precise passing under high-speed conditions will become even more essential,” he concludes.
The women’s game
This study represents the first comprehensive analysis of Women’s World Cup finals, documenting the game’s evolution over time.
“Female athletes have been significantly underrepresented in sports science and medicine literature across most sports,” asserts Prof. Norton.
“A notable observation from this research is that both men’s and women’s games are aligned in their evolution. The growing professionalization of women’s soccer allows players to compete full-time, resulting in gameplay speed and style that increasingly mirrors that of men’s soccer, confirming the effectiveness of this model,” he notes.
Study limitations
The study comprises 15 men’s finals spanning 56 years and 9 women’s finals across 32 years. While World Cup finals showcase the pinnacle of soccer performance, they may not completely reflect the sport’s overall evolution. Variability can also arise from factors such as weather, team tactics like time-wasting, officiating styles, scorelines, and player injuries or substitutions.
“Despite these game-to-game variations, we can still observe the game’s evolution and quantify it to confirm statistically significant trends,” clarifies Prof. Norton.
The future
“Modern matches are characterized by high-density environments where players must think rapidly to navigate the ball through traffic. This trend is likely to continue, but can the pace of the game ultimately increase?” queries Prof. Norton.
As the sport develops, the abilities exhibited by stars like Lionel Messi and Sam Kerr may become the norm rather than the exception.
Another implication of this rising intensity is the greater physical toll on players’ bodies.
“Competing at such intensity in each match affects players physically and is linked to a higher risk of injuries. Effectively managing players with appropriate training loads, recovery methods, and rehabilitation programs will be increasingly crucial,” emphasizes Prof. Norton.
Finally, he adds, “Identifying elite players capable of excelling at the highest levels is rare, necessitating the search for talent worldwide… and they will demand appropriate compensation.”
