The trajectory of Notre Dame’s college football program is tied to one significant factor: a healthy elbow of quarterback CJ Carr, which is currently healing.

For the Fighting Irish, the performance of redshirt freshman Carr is crucial. His ability to lead will influence Notre Dame’s aspirations for a national title in 2025.

The recent national championship game highlighted the competitive gap between Notre Dame and the best teams: they need to enhance their passing attack.

Ohio State secured their 34-23 victory through a play Notre Dame struggled to execute. The Irish sent seven defenders on third down, leaving Christian Gray isolated in man-to-man coverage against Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith.

This matchup was heavily imbalanced.

Will Howard concluded his impressive postseason by completing a 56-yard pass to Smith, leading to a celebration with red and white confetti.

“We believed we had an advantage with Jeremiah,” said Buckeyes coach Ryan Day.

Additionally, they had a significant advantage with Howard as well.

To Win it All, Notre Dame Needs More than Riley Leonard

Howard completed his first 13 passes in a showcase of quarterback talent, effectively distributing the ball among some of the best receivers in the nation. In contrast, Notre Dame primarily relied on quarterback runs.

No disrespect to Riley Leonard, the outgoing starting quarterback at Notre Dame, whose resilience and running abilities pushed the team to the season’s finale. Leonard demonstrated determination by running on nine of the 18 plays during their opening touchdown drive.

However, for success at this level, the Irish need a quarterback who can deliver accurate passes and a more dynamic receiving corps. This was essential back in 2012 when Notre Dame finished as national runners-up, and it remains true today.

“We couldn’t rely on Riley for every play,” said Irish coach Marcus Freeman. “It’s not fair to him, and it’s not a sustainable offensive strategy.”

Exactly. Championship teams ultimately need a quarterback and a receiver capable of executing significant plays together.

Perhaps Carr will rise to that role.

CJ Carr is Key to Notre Dame’s Prospects

In December, Freeman stated that Notre Dame would not be looking for a transfer quarterback this offseason, which may indicate either a risky move or great faith in Carr’s recovery and skills. Carr, who signed just over a year ago as one of the nation’s elite quarterbacks with a four-star rating, did not get to play during his true freshman year due to an elbow injury.

Recently, Carr mentioned that he is recovering well, which is encouraging for Notre Dame fans. Despite rumors about a potential competition between Carr and two-year backup Steve Angeli for the starting position, Carr has a much higher potential. If Notre Dame aims for championship glory next season, he is their best option.

“CJ Carr is a quarterback who can carry the franchise on his shoulders,” remarked ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit.

The last seven national champions featured starting quarterbacks with an average of at least 199 passing yards, with four averaging over 250 yards, including Howard.

In contrast, Leonard had an average of 179 passing yards and only 7.1 yards per attempt.

Howard? He threw for more than 4,000 yards, achieved 35 touchdowns, and averaged an impressive 9.5 yards per attempt. That’s the play of a champion.

Freeman is creating a culture of toughness and resilience essential for making Notre Dame a constant contender in the College Football Playoffs, but the game has increasingly become about effective passing plays.

LSU and Alabama set a new standard for what a national champion should resemble in 2019 and 2020, with quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Mac Jones delivering exceptional performances with their exceptional receivers. Even as Georgia amassed an all-star lineup for their back-to-back championships, Stetson Bennett averaged over 275 passing yards during their second title year, stepping up when it mattered most.

Michigan managed to win last season without a top-tier quarterback, as J.J. McCarthy and his receivers were merely solid, not extraordinary. The Wolverines prioritized a ground-and-tackle approach, but with the playoffs now expanding to four rounds and 12 teams, it’s harder to imagine a champion lacking a top-tier quarterback.

Yet the question remains if Freeman will be able to nurture one.

The latest recruiting class at Notre Dame concluded without a standout quarterback, after Deuce Knight switched his commitment to Auburn. The top four recruits for Notre Dame are an offensive tackle, a linebacker, a tight end, and a safety. Sounds about right for the Irish, doesn’t it?

Where is the receiver who will rack up over 1,000 yards? Ohio State has two of them.

Jaden Greathouse closed out the season strong and will return to lead the receiving group, which also includes Jordan Faison. This is a good start, but not sufficient. The Irish will also require transfer receiver Malachi Fields from Virginia to excel, and they need someone to get him the ball effectively.

Notre Dame’s ambition to reach the pinnacle of college football depends on the recovery of Carr’s elbow and his ability to thrive as a quarterback.

Blake Toppmeyer is the national college football columnist for News Network. Follow him on X @btoppmeyer.