Joey Votto’s announcement regarding his retirement on Wednesday brings up a significant question that may remain unresolved for the next five years.

Will the longtime Cincinnati Reds first baseman be inducted into the Hall of Fame?

Throughout his 17-year career, the 2010 National League MVP ended with an impressive .294 batting average, .409 on-base percentage (OBP), and .920 on-base plus slugging (OPS), earning respect across the league.

Votto debuted in Major League Baseball in 2007 after the “Steroid Era,” showcasing a unique style compared to the power hitters before him. He was a Gold Glove winner and, while he hit over 30 home runs only three times during his career (2010, 2017, 2021), he was one of the hardest players to get out, leading the National League in OBP seven times in a nine-year stretch from 2010 to 2018.

His attempt to make a comeback with his hometown team, the Toronto Blue Jays, this season was hindered by injuries and poor performance after signing a minor league contract, ultimately leading to his retirement announcement.

Let’s break down Votto’s Hall of Fame candidacy:

Arguments in Favor of Joey Votto

Among players with 7,000 career plate appearances, Votto’s .409 OBP ranks ninth during the integration era (from 1947 onward), only behind six Hall of Famers along with Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez. Out of the top 15 (.409 or higher OBP, including Votto), 11 are already enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

While Votto might not have standout home run figures every season, his slugging percentage frequently placed him in the top 10, including leading the National League with a .600 slugging percentage during his MVP year in 2010.

Since 2008, he holds the record for the most walks (1,360), ranks sixth in hits (2,108), and fifth in games played (2,032).

Arguments Against Joey Votto

Votto’s counting stats, which aren’t particularly eye-catching, may work against him when he first appears on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2029. His total home runs (356) may cause voters to hesitate, especially since he played his entire career in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball.

Another criticism is that Votto walked “too much” and could have benefited from swinging more often. His former manager, Dusty Baker, once commented that while an on-base percentage is valuable, runs batted in (RBIs) are even more important.

During his 17 seasons, he achieved over 80 RBIs only eight times—a surprising figure given his hitting skills and consistent placement in the heart of Cincinnati’s batting order at Great American Ball Park.

Conclusion

Votto’s case is intriguing as a first baseman who didn’t typically post massive power numbers. However, the Hall of Fame’s criteria seem to have become less stringent in recent years, as seen with players like Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, and Joe Mauer, who were inducted despite having less impressive counting stats than previously required.

Inducted in 2024 during his sixth year of eligibility, Helton might be the most relevant contemporary comparison to Votto. While Helton’s overall stats were slightly better, Votto had a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 64.5 compared to Helton’s 61.8, and both players experienced a similar decline in power as they aged. When comparing Votto’s metrics to Helton’s, it’s also important to consider Helton’s achievements in light of the Steroid Era.

In the upcoming years, further voting results will paint a clearer picture of Votto’s Hall of Fame chances, especially with players like Ryan Braun (2026) and Buster Posey (2027) preparing to hit the ballot, not to mention potential inductions for Andruw Jones (61.6% in 2024) and Carlos Beltran (57.1%).