Food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy: As the need for agricultural resources continues to grow, how can we balance new farming areas with environmental protection? Researchers have created a land-use model that offers insights.
By the year 2030, it is anticipated that the total land used for farming globally will increase by 3.6 percent, which would lead to a 2 percent rise in global agricultural output. This forecast is provided by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
A research team from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel, guided by Dr. Florian Zabel and Prof. Dr. Ruth Delzeit, has explored which regions around the world are likely to see the most agricultural growth in the future. Their research results have been published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
More Production Equals More Emissions
The team developed a land-use model that pinpoints the most economically advantageous regions for future agricultural growth, while considering both economic factors and ecological health. They evaluated the economic and environmental effects of changing land use in these regions. The research indicates that new farming areas are predominantly expected to arise in tropical regions, where there remains considerable opportunity to boost agricultural yield, even amid climate change challenges.
However, the study also reveals a downside: farmland retains significantly less carbon compared to the original ecosystems it replaces. As a result, the transition to agricultural land could result in an estimated release of 17 gigatons of CO2 over the long run. This number represents nearly half of the current total annual CO2 emissions worldwide. Furthermore, biodiversity in these regions could see a decline of 26 percent. “The growth of farming land presents serious concerns for climate protection and biodiversity conservation,” states co-lead researcher Florian Zabel.
Conservation is Economically Viable
With recent global initiatives focusing on protecting ecosystems and biodiversity, the researchers also considered the implications of various global conservation policies. Notably, some conservation actions can lead to unintentional consequences: preventing agricultural expansion into forests, wetlands, and designated protected areas can lead to farming moving into grasslands instead. Since grasslands tend to have higher biodiversity, this shift could adversely impact those ecosystems.
On a positive note, maintaining conservation efforts can also prove to be economically beneficial. “Interestingly, preserving forests, wetlands, and existing protected regions has minimal effects on the gross domestic product (GDP) of those areas. Any reductions in global agricultural output are minor. However, the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from agricultural spread are significantly lessened,” explains lead author Julia Schneider from Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. This insight is particularly relevant for global food security, suggesting that it is possible to alleviate tensions between agricultural production and environmental conservation.
Enhancing Protected Area Planning
The findings of this study are instrumental in determining which areas merit protection. In the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Convention, the world community has committed to safeguarding 30 percent of Earth’s land surface by 2030.
Through this research, regions that are at high risk in the future are identified, along with the potential repercussions of agricultural expansion on both the economy and the environment. “This enables us to plan protected areas so they can maximize benefits across various objectives, including climate action and biodiversity preservation, while also addressing economic concerns,” remarks Florian Zabel.
