The final poll from the New York Times and Siena College conducted just before Election Day reveals a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

This poll, released on Friday, shows both candidates receiving 48% of the votes.

The survey gathered responses from 2,516 likely voters across the country from October 20 to October 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Compared to an earlier poll from early October where Harris held a three-point lead, this latest poll indicates the race has tightened up, although the change falls within the margin of error.

“Despite a notable debate, two assassination attempts on Trump, numerous rallies in key battleground states, and extensive ad spending, there appears to be no significant shift in the race’s direction,” reported the Times.

Understanding Polling Statistics

The margin of error indicates how likely it is for the survey results to accurately reflect the broader population.

If a candidate’s lead falls “within” the margin of error, it is regarded as a “statistical tie,” as per Pew Research Center.

Pew has also observed that many polling organizations have altered their methodologies since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was greatly underestimated.