With just under six weeks remaining until the general election, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical swing state of Arizona, as shown in a new exclusive YSL News/Suffolk University poll.

The poll indicates Trump is leading Harris by 6 points, with 48% for Trump and 42% for Harris, based on a survey of 500 likely voters. This result is within a 4.4% margin of error, suggesting that the battle remains closely contested, as the results could fluctuate in either candidate’s favor. The poll was conducted between September 21 and 24.

In Maricopa County, the largest county in Arizona and often a barometer for the overall state results, Trump’s lead is narrower at 47% compared to Harris’s 43%. This finding comes from a separate poll conducted by the same group during the same timeframe, involving 300 likely voters, with a margin of error of 5.7%.

Approximately 47% of Latino voters in Arizona indicated support for Harris, while Trump garnered 35% approval among this demographic. The state has around 1.3 million eligible Latino voters, composing nearly a quarter of the state’s registered voting populace.

Arizona possesses 11 electoral votes, making it a crucial battleground state on the road to securing the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the presidency. Both candidates are actively campaigning for Arizona, with Harris scheduled to visit Douglas, AZ, on Friday. Earlier this month, Trump rallied support in Tucson, and both campaigns have seen high-profile surrogates make visits to the state recently.

Trump’s current lead may pose a challenge for Harris, who initially experienced a boost in polling after stepping in for President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Biden had previously flipped Arizona in 2020, winning by a narrow margin of fewer than 11,000 votes, while Trump secured the state in 2016. However, the data also reveals that 5% of voters surveyed are still undecided.

Ana Keck, who supported Biden in 2020, stated that she will be voting for Trump this time because she feels the Democrats have failed in their management of the economy and foreign affairs, particularly regarding Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

“I just don’t think they’ve implemented the changes they promised,” Keck, 39, from Scottsdale expressed about the Democrats.

On the other hand, Jordan Waddell, 30, cites the protection of women’s rights, such as abortion access and LGBTQ+ rights, as her reasons for supporting Harris. She also fears Trump’s Project 2025 proposal.

“We need a president focused on unity, not division,” Waddell, a resident of Avondale, remarked. “Donald Trump doesn’t grasp these issues, nor is he looking to improve conditions for those who are marginalized.”

Most Arizonans back abortion access, poll shows

More than half – 58% – of voters in Arizona expressed their intent to support Arizona Proposition 139, a Constitutional amendment aimed at safeguarding the right to abortion in the state.

Abortion rights have taken center stage in Harris’s campaign narrative. Last week, she urged for the restoration of abortion access in Georgia following a ProPublica report about the tragic death of 28-year-old Amber Thurman, a pregnant woman, due to complications caused by the state’s new abortion restrictions.

Trump has frequently boasted about his role in overturning Roe v. Wade, which the Supreme Court rescinded in 2022, stating that he supports states determining their own abortion laws.

Shea Ruskin from Scottsdale plans to vote in favor of the amendment. The 33-year-old, who did not vote in the last election due to registration issues, will cast her ballot for Harris this time around.

“I am deeply worried about women’s rights and their bodily autonomy,” she noted, expressing optimism about a future under Harris as president.

Keck, who is endorsing Trump, identifies as “pro-choice” and also supports the constitutional amendment.

“I have two daughters, and I want them to have choices,” she said, emphasizing the importance of abortion access for individuals facing health issues or those who have experienced sexual assault.

While prioritizing women’s health, Keck hopes the conversation surrounding it will extend beyond just abortion to also encompass other aspects of women’s health including childbirth. In 2017, she faced a life-threatening complication called HELLP syndrome when her daughter was born at just 32 weeks, resulting in two months in the hospital for both.

“The number one risk to women is childbirth,” Keck pointed out. “What are the plans to address that?”

Economy and inflation are primary concerns

Concerns surrounding inflation and the economy are at the forefront of voters’ minds.

In a recent poll, 27% of participants shared their thoughts on the current economic conditions in Arizona. When asked to rate their situation, only 5% considered it excellent, while 26% found it to be good. The responses for “fair” and “poor” were nearly equal, each accounting for around 33%.

Moreover, a significant number of participants—52%—reported feeling worse off than they did four years ago, as opposed to 39% who felt their circumstances have improved.

Trent Kay, a 33-year-old resident of Gilbert, a suburb of Phoenix, expressed his choice to vote for Trump, believing that the Republican Party would positively impact the economy. He did not participate in the last election, feeling it wasn’t as crucial at that time.

“The economy is my primary concern,” Kay stated. “I don’t think the other side understands how to manage the economy or foreign policy.”

Conversely, Waddell, who lives in Avondale, criticized Trump, arguing that his policies favor the wealthy instead of supporting the middle class.

“In the past four years, they’ve only been attempting to fix previous issues,” she remarked. “Returning to those times is not an option; it hasn’t been economically secure.”

Immigration is also a key concern

The survey highlighted immigration as another principal concern among Arizona voters, with 21% citing it as their top priority.

Trump has made a tough stance on immigration a fundamental part of his campaign, pledging to reinstate his previous stringent measures and introduce even stricter strategies, including large-scale deportations. The Biden administration has been criticized for its approach to the border, especially following record-high encounters after the pandemic, though immigration figures have recently decreased.

This Friday, Harris will visit the Arizona border to discuss border security and advocate for a bipartisan border security bill that Trump pressured Republicans to reject.

Tonya Neely, 51, from Florence, Arizona, shared her view that Biden and Harris’s border management has made the nation “more vulnerable.”

“Joe and Kamala have not done a good job in safeguarding the interests of our residents,” Neely, a medically retired Phoenix police and 911 dispatcher, expressed.

On the other hand, some voters are focused on supporting candidates who respect the country’s Democratic principles.

Carlos Pacheco, 46, of Yuma, believes Harris is an intelligent and educated individual with “good intentions.”

Despite his reservations about some of her policies, including a recent initiative offering $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, he considers her the most suitable candidate from all parties involved.

“My voting decision in this election is primarily about maintaining the constitutional order and upholding democracy as we know it,” remarked Pacheco, a registered Independent who has supported both Republicans and Democrats.