In the closing week of the 2024 election campaign, former President Donald Trump’s betting advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly weakened.

A week ago, Trump held a favored status at the U.K. bookmaker Bet 365 with odds of -188. As of Monday, just before Election Day, his odds have dropped to -138, while Harris’s odds improved from +150 to +120 at the same bookmaker.

The tightest margin, which U.S. bookmakers are barred from participating in, comes from offshore bookmaker BetOnline, reporting Trump at +140 and Harris at -120.

This shift may be linked to controversial remarks made by a speaker at a Trump rally in New York, which resonated negatively in key swing states such as Pennsylvania.

Additionally, a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, part of the YSL News Network, unveiled that Harris is leading in Iowa, although within the poll’s margin of error. This finding is surprising since Iowa has traditionally been regarded as a secure state for Trump.

“It’s difficult for anyone to claim they anticipated this,” commented J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co, who conducted the poll, adding, “She has undoubtedly taken a leading position.”

Presidential Betting Odds Timeline

Current Presidential Betting Odds as of 11/4

Bet 365

• Donald Trump: -138
• Kamala Harris: +120

via Covers.com

Bovada

• Donald Trump: -140
• Kamala Harris: +120

BetOnline

• Donald Trump: -140
• Kamala Harris: +120

Oddschecker

• Donald Trump: -133
• Kamala Harris: +150

Historical Accuracy of Election Odds in Previous Presidential Elections

Since 1866, the betting favorite has lost only twice, as noted by the Conversation, a nonprofit news outlet.

The last significant upset occurred in 2016 when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was consistently favored over Trump, yet she ultimately lost.

The other notable upset took place in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman overcame eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.