Recent polls in Pennsylvania indicate that voters are split between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. However, betting markets present a different view. According to these markets, Trump’s chances in Pennsylvania—and potentially the overall election—are looking better.

Since the vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, betting trends on the Polymarket platform, a cryptocurrency-based trading site, have shifted in favor of Trump. The surge in bets has increased the odds of Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania.

As of Thursday morning, bettors are now estimating Trump’s chances of winning Wisconsin and Michigan, marking the first significant change since late July. By Friday at noon ET, the Polymarket betting odds showed Trump with a 54.7% chance of winning the election, his highest likelihood since July 30. Note that betting on presidential elections is not legally permitted in the U.S.

Shifts in Trump’s Winning Chances Over the Last Two Weeks

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Trump’s increasing likelihood of winning the presidency closely aligns with his improving odds in Pennsylvania. In prior weeks, Harris had seen a slight lead in that state, which carries 19 electoral votes. If Harris were to win Pennsylvania along with other states where she has favorable odds, she could accumulate more than 270 electoral votes necessary for victory.

Comparative Odds for Trump and Harris Across States

With only four weeks to go before the November 5 election, Trump’s chances in the 2024 race are significantly better compared to his previous campaigns in 2016 and 2020. During the 2016 election, he had just a 17% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton as voters cast their ballots, based on data from Betfair Exchange, the largest peer-to-peer betting platform in the U.K.

Voter Awareness of Harris

In 2016, potential voters and betting markets knew considerably less about Trump than they did about Clinton. By now, however, the circumstances appear flipped, according to Harry Crane, an election outcome researcher from Rutgers University.

Crane noted in a phone interview Thursday, “Harris is relatively less known. She’s been serving as vice president but hasn’t participated in many media interviews, leading to limited exposure.” A recent “60 Minutes” interview with Harris was the first of various engagements planned for her campaign.

According to Crane, “She’s quite different from Trump, who is always in the spotlight. Very few things could surprise people about Trump. The question remains: does this lack of exposure help or hurt Harris?”

Current Election Toss-Up States

Real Clear Politics is consistently reviewing and compiling polling data nationwide. Their findings indicate that over 100 electoral votes across nine states are still considered toss-ups.

Betting Markets Reflect Heightened Odds for Trump Compared to Previous Elections

Although Trump and Harris have experienced significant fluctuations in betting odds recently, Trump’s current situation is much different compared to the first day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his chances of winning were above 70% on both Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.

Past Bet Predictions and Trump’s 2016 Win

As of Friday at noon ET, Trump had almost a 10-point lead over Harris on Polymarket. Meanwhile, Betfair Exchange reported a 9-point difference, which is considered too close to call. This remains the narrowest lead among Trump’s three campaigns, according to historical data from Betfair. On October 11, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 68% chance of winning.

In 2016, Betfair had Clinton with an 81% likelihood of victory on Election Day. Historically, the betting favorite has only lost two times since 1866, as reported by the nonprofit news organization The Conversation. The only other instance where bettors failed to predict the winner was in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman defied 8-to-1 odds to win against Republican Thomas Dewey.