It remains uncertain if Mexico and Canada truly outplayed President Donald Trump during his tariff dispute, but it certainly appears that way—at least for the time being.

Trump is claiming victory, asserting that Mexico and Canada succumbed to his 25% tariff following a tumultuous confrontation with America’s key trade partners.

For now, it looks like Mexico and Canada have effectively sidestepped Trump by strengthening their border security with measures either already in place or readily achievable.

Mexico and Canada Made Trump Think He Triumphed

I find it amusing that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau managed to manipulate Trump’s ego into taking a step back for 30 days. They clearly understood that he detests negative media coverage and is especially wary of causing turmoil in the stock market.

These factors likely influenced Trump’s agreement on Monday to pause the implementation of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, contingent on these countries curbing the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigration—issues he uses as justifications for his broader agenda.

In these face-saving arrangements, Mexico pledged to send 10,000 soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border, while Canada committed to enhancing border security with new helicopters, technological advancements, and extra personnel, including appointing a fentanyl czar, classifying cartels as terrorist organizations, and forming a joint task force against organized crime.

A significant win for Trump? Sure, let him believe that.

Canada had already established some of these border security initiatives and introduced additional measures to satisfy Trump.

Simultaneously, Mexico has been conducting Trump’s bidding regarding immigration issues.

Mexican President Sheinbaum Secured a Key Concession from Trump

Back in 2019, then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sent thousands of soldiers to Mexico’s southern border to tackle the flow of migrants heading toward the United States.

Recently, Mexico had ramped up its efforts to control migration and created temporary facilities for Trump’s deportees.

Deploying 10,000 soldiers to the border seemingly posed no significant challenge for Sheinbaum, who appeared content to let Trump celebrate his perceived victory.

“These soldiers will specifically work to stop the influx of fentanyl and illegal migrants into our country,” Trump proudly declared on social media.

Moreover, Sheinbaum mentioned that Trump has agreed to assist in addressing the illegal smuggling of high-powered weapons into Mexico—arms often utilized by cartels in drug trafficking, human trafficking, and the accompanying violence.

Although Trump didn’t mention this point in his social media post, if it is accurate, it indicates that Sheinbaum achieved an important concession. It’s worth noting that Mexico is currently suing U.S. firearms manufacturers over the illegal weapon shipments into the country.

Trump is Only Partially Addressing the Fentanyl Crisis

Trump’s focus on fentanyl trafficking is understandable, as this drug has claimed tens of thousands of lives in the United States.

The majority of fentanyl—approximately 96.6%—originates from Mexico, while only a tiny fraction—about 0.2%—comes from Canada, according to CNN. In the fiscal year 2024, U.S. border officials reported seizing 21,889 pounds of fentanyl, with a mere 43 pounds confiscated at the Canadian border.

What Trump overlooks is his lack of interest in tackling drug usage or the underlying demand in the United States. This indifference makes it exceedingly difficult to put an end to drug trafficking and addiction.

Trump has an opportunity to take meaningful action by rigorously tackling firearms smuggling into Mexico and addressing drug addiction issues domestically.

But alas, such actions necessitate investment in and compassion for those struggling with substance use.

Trump has shown no inclination to assist these individuals or curb the consumption of this deadly substance.

Trump’s Policies Leave Industries at Risk — This is a Misstep.

Trump has grander ambitions.

He seems fixated on retaliating against Mexico and has an eye on annexing Canada as the 51st state, regardless of the cost.

He’s wielding the threat of tariffs as a means to punish Mexico and potentially pressure Canada into capitulation, all while attempting to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal at any price.

Trump reacts primarily to financial power and strength, which likely aided Trudeau, who stood his ground and was prepared to impose a 25% tariff on U.S. products if necessary. He rallied his citizens against Trump’s imperialistic attempts.

However, this pause should be seen as just that—temporary.

Trump’s tariff threats make entire industries—such as automakers, restaurants, and beer producers—vulnerable. This also puts fruit and vegetable farmers, warehouses, and packaging and distribution networks at risk.

In total, these three countries engage in about $2 trillion worth of goods and services annually. Trump should not be using this economic exchange to pursue his grandiose fantasies.

Elvia Díaz is the editorial page editor for The Arizona Republic and azcentral, where this piece was originally published. You can contact her at elvia.diaz@arizonarepublic.com or follow her on X, (formerly Twitter): @elviadiaz1