Weeks after Ukraine’s audacious strike on Russia’s Kursk region, analysts are still evaluating the possible long-term effects on a war that has persisted for over two and a half years.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that this offensive has established a “buffer zone” to limit Russian assaults on Kharkiv and Sumy, while also depleting Russian military resources. However, this did not prevent Russia from launching a significant missile and drone attack across Ukraine on Monday, which resulted in at least five fatalities and left millions without power or water in the war-torn country.

“Like many previous Russian strikes, this one was equally brutal, targeting essential civilian infrastructure,” Zelenskyy remarked.

Even before the latest attack, residents were evacuating parts of the Donetsk region due to the advancing Russian forces. Nonetheless, Ukrainian troops who invaded Kursk and captured hundreds of Russian soldiers have held onto close to 500 square miles, which is a small part of a region populated by over 1 million Russians.

Russia experiencing ‘taste of its own medicine’

Zev Faintuch, who leads Research and Intelligence at the Global Guardian international security firm, shared with YSL News that the attack demonstrates a “taste-of-your-own-medicine” approach. While questioning its tactical advantages, he notes that the offensive has improved Ukrainian morale while lowering Russian morale.

Faintuch adds that this move communicates to Western allies that, with increased support, Ukraine can inflict serious harm on Russia’s military and economic framework. It might also incite domestic unrest in Moscow and create room for territorial negotiations in future diplomatic efforts.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted that President Vladimir Putin seems to be pressuring his military to regain lost territory without undermining the stability of his regime or hindering the ongoing Russian military campaign in eastern Ukraine. Notably off the table is the option of “firing his incompetent but loyal aides,” the assessment mentions.

However, the implications of this strategy remain uncertain, the analysis continues.

Putin faults the US and West for Kursk incursion

Putin has cast blame on Western nations for the unexpected breach, despite U.S. officials asserting they had no advanced knowledge of the incursion. He deemed it a ‘significant provocation’ and once again accused the U.S. of utilizing Ukrainians as proxies. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, a senior advisor to Putin, announced that Russia should broaden its objectives to encompass the entirety of Ukraine and to “ruthlessly defeat and annihilate the enemy.”

Intelligence analyst Joe Chafetz from Global Guardian argues that the incursion, while not conclusive, has compelled Russia to confront tough decisions. He also points out that it highlights the likelihood that Putin may not be able to conclude the conflict on his own terms.

“Kyiv’s move into Kursk illustrates that Ukrainian forces can execute complex mechanized operations,” he explained. If Ukraine manages to replicate its success, Russia’s strategy of steady and irreversible progress might falter, he added.

Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Democratic Resilience Program with the Center for European Policy Analysis, previously advised Putin opponent Alexei Navalny before Navalny’s suspicious death in a Russian prison six months ago. Luzin expresses uncertainty about the claims that Ukraine is controlling over 90 villages in Kursk. He raises the question of whether a few Ukrainian soldiers entering a town unopposed truly qualifies as control.

“Several villages and towns now fall under Ukrainian military influence because local officials have largely deserted,” he noted during a forum last week, commenting, “We still cannot determine if we are at the onset, in the midst, or at the conclusion of this military operation, as this will become clearer with time.”

Russian public shows little concern for Ukraine

Luzin also notes that the apparent apathy of Russian citizens toward the Ukraine offensive might reflect their indifference to Putin’s aspirations of capturing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine and retaining Crimea, territory Russia annexed a decade ago that Ukraine is striving to reclaim.

This leads to questions about the extent of sacrifice that Russian people are willing to endure for the cause in Ukraine.

“What implications does this hold for us? What does it signify for Ukraine?” Luzin queried. “If the people of Russia show no interest in Kursk, they will likely remain indifferent toward Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and other occupied areas of Ukraine.”