How significant are presidential debates? The first debate of 2024 reshaped the entire election landscape, but generally, debates lead to marginal changes of about 2 or 3 points in polling figures.

However, in a tightly contested election like this one, where a few swing states will determine the result, even slight shifts in support can be pivotal.

Debates can be particularly impactful for candidates who are less familiar to the public. While voters are well aware of former President Donald Trump, many feel they lack adequate insight into Vice President Kamala Harris.

A recurring question regarding her vice presidential tenure is, “What has she achieved?” The debate provides a platform to clarify her accomplishments, leadership style, and determination.

Debates serve as a level playing field, allowing voters to compare candidates’ leadership qualities and character in an impartial setting. They assess aspects like communication style, interaction with opponents, and responses to challenging inquiries.

Muted microphones may favor Trump in the debate

Given Trump’s history of being disrespectful towards opponents, the fact that this debate will have live microphones only for the candidate answering a question is important. This arrangement promotes a level of respect and composure that may otherwise be lacking.

The muted microphones worked to Trump’s advantage during his initial debate with President Joe Biden this year. This contrasts with past debates in 2020 and 2016, where Trump often interrupted candidates to the point that Biden remarked, “Will you shut up, man?”

The first Trump-Clinton debate in 2016 became the most-viewed presidential debate in history. While we likely won’t see the same audience for the Harris-Trump debate, it’s expected that it will attract more viewers than the earlier Biden debate.

How closely will the Harris-Trump debate resemble the first Clinton-Trump debate?

Similar to Harris, Clinton had a narrow lead in national polling before their initial debate and appeared confident and well-prepared. Clinton managed to stay composed even when Trump interrupted her.

During that debate, when the moderator asked Trump to clarify his earlier remarks about Clinton not having “the presidential look,” it opened the door for Clinton to address Trump’s derogatory comments about women.

This year, Trump has characterized Harris as a “play toy” for global leaders. This may come up during the debate, prompting Harris to either confront it head-on or divert the conversation, as she has previously done regarding critiques about her laughter or racial background.

In 2016, Clinton leaned heavily into gender discussions, emphasizing the significance of breaking the glass ceiling and her historical candidacy. In contrast, Harris tends to keep gender discussions more subtle and is more inclined to focus on issues like abortion rights and personal freedoms.

Polls indicated Clinton won her debates against Trump

Post-debate surveys indicated that Clinton was viewed as the winner in all three of her debates with Trump. Ultimately, on Election Day, Clinton won among the two-thirds of voters who considered debates important, although she lost decisively to Trump among the 30% who felt debates were not significant.

Debates do hold importance, but they aren’t the sole factor influencing voter decisions. Many individuals will skip watching the debates live and instead rely on news coverage or social media for updates.

A notable instance of how media coverage can sway public perception occurred in the 1976 election between President Gerald Ford and Democratic candidate Jimmy Carter.

Following their second debate, many voters believed Ford had emerged victorious and was more likable. However, by the next morning, when the media highlighted Ford’s assertion that Poland was not under Soviet control, public opinion shifted dramatically, with voters believing he had lost badly, as indicated by internal polling.

What account will the media give regarding the Harris-Trump debate? Analyses will vary. Don’t forget that different networks will showcase different clips, so it’s advisable to watch it for oneself.

Celinda Lake, 

The president of Lake Research Partners, who served as one of the primary pollsters for Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, also conducts polling for the Democratic National Committee. Meanwhile, Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research, stands out as a prominent public opinion pollster, especially recognized for her insight into swing voters, with a focus on women.