Introducing the latest CFP rankings, much like the previous media polls
The new College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings were released on Tuesday evening, and it might surprise you to learn that they look just like the old version.
The inaugural 12-team CFP rankings mirror the current Associated Press poll with only a flip in the positions between Ohio State and Georgia, who are ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.
This surely must be a coincidence, considering how frequently we hear that the polls hold little value until the CFP rankings are published. It seems one could either imitate the media or perhaps blame them?
“We don’t look at the public polls,” stated Warde Manuel, the CFP committee chair and Michigan athletic director.
It’s a challenging role. Regardless of how the rankings play out, there will always be disappointment and backlash. Manuel, as the spokesperson for the selection committee of 13 members, will bear the brunt of criticism for perceived oversights.
Here’s a breakdown of the teams that are either overrated or underrated in the initial CFP rankings.
Teams That Are Overrated
∎ Penn State (Ranked No. 6, Seed No. 7)
Best win: 21-7 against Illinois
Worst loss: 20-13 against Ohio State
Opponent record: 33-34
Analysis: It’s hard to forget that on first and goal from the 3, they ran the ball three consecutive times against an Ohio State defense, overlooking quarterback Drew Allar’s potential impact in crucial games.
Penn State does not rank among the top six teams in the nation and potentially not even in the top 12. This season reflects much of what we’ve seen from Penn State under coach James Franklin (excluding 2016): solid defense but a cautious offense. And, overall, rather uninspiring football.
∎ Texas (Ranked No. 5, Seed No. 6)
Best win: 27-24 against Vanderbilt
Worst loss: 30-15 against Georgia
Opponent record: 40-30 (20-15, SEC)
Analysis: The strength of schedule may appear decent at first glance, but a deeper dive reveals flaws. Texas suffered a home defeat against Georgia and narrowly defeated Vanderbilt, which they consider their highlight win.
Too much significance has been attributed to a September victory over an average Michigan team, and crediting wins against Group of Five teams will render the CFP polls meaningless.
∎ Notre Dame (Ranked No. 10, Seed No. 10)
Best win: 23-13 against Texas A&M
Worst loss: 16-14 against NIU
Opponent record: 35-33
Analysis: Are we really going to validate Notre Dame based on a win at Texas A&M during the opening of the season?
Can we ignore a schedule that features two teams from the MAC (with one beating Notre Dame), two service academies, the weakest team in the Big Ten (Purdue), five ACC schools, and the least impressive USC team in years? Surely, we can demand more from the CFP than this.
Teams That Are Underrated
∎ Tennessee (Ranked No. 7, Seed No. 8)
Best win: 24-17 against Alabama
Worst loss: 19-14 against Arkansas
Opponent record: 33-36
Analysis: The Volunteers are in a strong position within a competitive SEC landscape. Should they win against Mississippi State, Georgia, UTEP, and Vanderbilt, they will compete in the SEC championship for the first time since 2007.
They boast the second-best defense in the SEC and lead the conference in rushing. The only area needing improvement is quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s passing accuracy. If he enhances his performance in the concluding month of the season, they will be a tough opponent for anyone in the SEC.
∎ Boise State (Ranked No. 12, Seed No. 12)
Best win: 45-24 against Washington State
Worst loss: 37-34 against Oregon
Opponent record: 39-28
Analysis: A key point for Boise State is that top-ranked Oregon required a kick return for a touchdown, a punt return for a touchdown, and a last-minute field goal to defeat them at home.
Additionally, Boise State delivered Washington State its sole defeat (by 21 points), won on the road against UNLV, and is poised to secure the Mountain West title. By championship week in December, the Broncos may have a strong enough portfolio to claim one of the four first-round byes.
∎ No. 13 SMU
Best win: 34-27 against Louisville
Worst loss: 18-15 against BYU
Opponent record: 41-39
Analysis: Quarterback Kevin Jennings was not the starter during a close loss to BYU, making this a transformed team as he continues to progress each week.
With three games left (Boston College, at Virginia, Cal), SMU is almost assured a spot in the ACC championship, with a CFP first-round bye possibly on the line. The crucial question remains: Will the committee regard SMU favorably even with a loss in the ACC championship?
∎ No. 16 Ole Miss
Best win: 27-3 against South Carolina
Worst loss: 20-17 against Kentucky
Opponent record: 39-38
Analysis: Had it not been for shocking final losses to Kentucky and LSU, Ole Miss would be undefeated and possibly ranked No. 2 nationally. Furthermore, the non-conference schedule (featuring Furman, Wake Forest, Middle Tennessee, Georgia Southern) hasn’t posed a challenge.
The season’s outcome hinges on Saturday’s matchup against Georgia in Oxford. A victory would prompt a significant jump in rankings, leaving only wins against Florida and Mississippi State needed to secure a spot in the CFP.
