WASHINGTON − Although Israel has made significant military progress against Hamas in Gaza, some U.S. officials believe that the ongoing fighting, which has reportedly claimed around 40,000 lives, is unlikely to completely dismantle the militant group.

This evaluation comes as new ceasefire discussions are taking place in Doha, where CIA Director William Burns is in attendance alongside Israeli and Egyptian intelligence leaders, while Hamas representatives are absent from the talks.

The backdrop of these discussions is marked by the staggering death toll in Gaza and concerns regarding potential Iranian retaliation following the assassination of a prominent Hamas figure last month in Tehran. Iranian officials suggest that a ceasefire in Gaza could lessen their planned response to this incident, which they attribute to Israel.

“The Biden administration is keen to avoid escalating the Gaza conflict into a broader regional war and does not want the U.S. drawn into such a situation,” commented Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, in an interview with YSL News.

Palestinian officials report Gaza’s death toll exceeds 40,000

As peace negotiations unfold, violence persists in Gaza. On Thursday night, an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Jabalia resulted in the deaths of at least six people, according to Palestinian health officials. The reported death toll of 40,000 has been deemed a “grim milestone for the world” by U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk.

While arms sales from the U.S. to Israel continue, there are growing inquiries about whether Israel’s military may have reached an impasse in Gaza.

It has been ten months since Islamist militants from Gaza launched attacks across southern Israel, resulting in 1,200 fatalities. Israeli officials have indicated that, despite the ongoing conflict, they have largely achieved their military goals in the densely populated region, according to U.S. sources who opted for anonymity.

Israel has gained ground against Hamas in Gaza, compromising the operational effectiveness of its combat divisions. Officials noted that achieving further security improvements will necessitate diplomatic efforts rather than solely relying on military strikes.

U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have demonstrated that simply defeating organized military forces does not guarantee lasting peace, an official pointed out. They emphasized that Hamas’s foundational ideology requires resolution through diplomatic means rather than military interventions.

‘Total victory’ is an unrealistic expectation’

While targeting Hamas fighters and leaders may offer fleeting advantages, one official argued that without a comprehensive peace plan that provides hope for Palestinians, attacks on Israel will persist.

However, Israeli leaders continue to see a military threat looming in Gaza. They assert that the fight will not cease until the perceived danger is thoroughly eradicated.

“There’s a lot of debate within the Israeli government about what ‘total victory’ means, particularly in light of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ambitions,” noted Djerejian. “In reality, complete victory is a challenging notion within the context of the Gaza conflict.”

General Mark Quantock, a retired U.S. Army general and former intelligence chief for Central Command, expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of completely eliminating Hamas as a threat through military actions.

“I’m not convinced that military efforts can fully eradicate Hamas as a terror threat,” Quantock stated in an interview with YSL News. “Like other terrorist groups, it is exceptionally resilient and adaptable.”

Civilian Casualties and Lasting Resentment

According to Quantock, if the death toll in Gaza is actually around half of the 40,000 stated by Palestinian officials, Israel may have unwittingly increased the number of future Hamas militants.

“This is certainly a bleak outlook, as the killing of civilians fosters deep-seated resentment,” Quantock explained. “Individuals don’t easily move past the deaths of their loved ones. That’s a very real issue.”

Back in December, following over two months of conflict in Gaza, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned that the high civilian casualties could lead to a “strategic defeat” for Israel.

“In this type of conflict, the civilian populace is the key factor,” Austin noted at the time. “If these civilians end up aligned with the enemy, a tactical win can easily turn into a strategic loss.”

On Thursday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby indicated that despite any private concerns in Washington, the U.S. would persist in offering military and political backing to Israel.

Kirby noted that Israel’s military has accomplished “the vast majority of their objectives,” yet Hamas still clings to an ideology that believes the events of October 7th could repeat. “Therefore, we will keep ensuring that Israel has the necessary resources to protect itself against that threat,” he added.

It remained unclear what advancements had been made on Thursday during the ceasefire negotiations, which included U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk, Mossad chief David Barnea, and Egyptian intelligence leader Abbas Kamel. Hamas representatives observed from the sidelines, awaiting Israel’s terms.

“The remaining challenges can be resolved, and it’s vital we bring this process to a conclusion,” Kirby stated.

A central aim of these ceasefire discussions is to secure the release of over 100 hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 and to negotiate the release of Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel.

Israel and Hamas have each accused the other of hindering progress toward a deal initially proposed by President Joe Biden in June.

Meanwhile, residents of Gaza have been praying for an end to the violence.

“We can’t take it anymore; we just want to return to our homes in Gaza City. Every hour, families are losing their lives or homes to bombings,” expressed Aya, 30, who is currently sheltering with her family in central Gaza.

“We’re hopeful this time. It’s either this time or never, I’m afraid,” she conveyed to Reuters.

After enduring over 10 months of continuous airstrikes and displacement, many are beginning to lose hope.

“There’s a prevailing feeling that the willingness to end this conflict is still absent,” remarked Federico Dessi, Middle East director for the humanitarian organization Humanity and Inclusion. “The conditions are exceedingly dire.”