The 2024 hurricane season isn’t unfolding as anticipated – at least not yet.

This year, counting the three storms active on Monday, the Pacific has outpaced the Atlantic in terms of storm activity, which has taken many by surprise, forecasters indicate. Additionally, there has been an unusual calm in the Atlantic lately as we near what is typically the most active part of the season.

“It is really quiet out there,” commented Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist from Colorado State University, in an interview with YSL News on Monday. “This was not what I expected when we released our recent seasonal forecast!”

“Since Ernesto weakened on August 20, there hasn’t been a named storm,” he added, “and the National Hurricane Center does not predict any new storm developments in the next week.”

Klotzbach pointed out that the last occasion where we witnessed no named storms from August 21 to September 2 in the Atlantic was in 1997.

What’s happening?

“The Atlantic tropics are broken – at least for now,” said meteorologist Ryan Maue on X Sunday, noting that storms forming near Africa face a significant hurdle: “The ocean temperatures in that region are far too cool to support even a rain shower.”

Hurricanes depend on warm ocean waters to develop, similar to how vehicles require fuel to operate; although many areas of the ocean are warm enough, it’s not where the storms are currently forming.

Klotzbach also mentioned that while some large-scale weather patterns are conducive to storm formation, others are hindering it.

Pacific 9, Atlantic 5

As of now in 2024, there have been five named storms in the Atlantic region, as per the National Hurricane Center, which includes three hurricanes (Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto). Conversely, the eastern and central Pacific basins have experienced nine named storms, with three of them being hurricanes (Carlotta, Gilma, and Hone).

This situation contradicts the forecasts made by experts, which predicted a highly active Atlantic hurricane season. Some estimates even suggested a “hyperactive” season with as many as 33 storms possible.

In contrast, NOAA’s forecast for the 2024 eastern Pacific hurricane season suggested a “below-normal season was most likely” (60% chance), a 30% likelihood of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal season, as per their preseason forecast released in May.

What’s the outlook? ‘Too early to give up on the season’

“I think it’s premature to abandon the season just yet,” Klotzbach said, noting that the latest models “are significantly more promising than they were just a week ago.”

This indicates that storm activity in the Atlantic may be on the verge of increasing.

As the Atlantic potentially heats up, the Pacific could quiet down: “Following the three systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the Pacific seems likely to settle down fairly soon,” Klotzbach noted. “There is little indication of further developments from the long-range forecasts.”