Why wait for Punxsutawney Phil? Before Groundhog Day hits, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has already issued a prediction for the upcoming spring: expect warmer weather ahead.

Since 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has been providing weather forecasts and their latest update suggests “warmer-than-usual temperatures will be seen across most of the nation, with a few exceptions: southern and central California, the Desert Southwest, southern Florida, and the western Ohio Valley, which might experience near to below-average temperatures.”

Additionally, a wetter spring is on the horizon, according to the Almanac. “Many parts of the country are likely to see higher rainfall levels than usual. Conversely, drier conditions are expected in regions such as upper New England, southern Florida, Texas–Oklahoma, the Heartland, the western Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes, northern High Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as the Pacific Northwest and northern California,” the Almanac reports.

This forecast aligns closely with predictions from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which indicates that most of the U.S. is likely to experience average or above-average temperatures and about half will see average rainfall amounts from March to May.

When does spring officially begin?

Spring in the U.S. officially starts on March 20, which is the date of the spring equinox.

How does The Old Farmer’s Almanac develop its weather forecasts?

To create its long-term weather predictions, The Old Farmer’s Almanac analyzes “solar patterns and past weather data in relation to current solar activity,” while also considering “a weak La Niña phase of the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation).

“Like all forecasts, we haven’t fully unraveled the world’s mysteries to achieve 100% accuracy in predicting the weather, but our results frequently approach our standard claim of 80% accuracy,” they state.

Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac consistently accurate?

The accuracy can vary based on individual perspectives. For this winter, The Old Farmer’s Almanac had predicted a “mild and uneventful winter” back in August 2024.

However, January saw a significant winter storm and an Arctic cold snap that brought below-average temperatures nationwide. Following that, a “once-in-a-generation weather event” impacted the South, causing unprecedented snowfall from Texas to Florida.

Meanwhile, The Farmer’s Almanac similarly forecast a milder and wetter winter.

Farmers often rely on the almanacs, as they have developed a reputation for trustworthiness in their information, as noted by Steve Hu, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln, in a discussion with Scientific American.

Nonetheless, professional meteorologists often criticize their forecasts. A University of Illinois study from 2010, referenced by Popular Mechanics in an October 2022 article, found that The Old Farmer’s Almanac had an accuracy rate of only about 52% over the years, which equates to near random guessing, according to that report.

NOAA, National Weather Service: Spring 2025 outlook

Here’s an overview of the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal forecast for spring, predicting average or above-average temperatures and average precipitation for much of the U.S. from March to May:

• Below average temperatures: Expect cooler temperatures in the Northwest, as well as in Montana, parts of Alaska, the Dakotas, Idaho, and Wyoming.
• Above average temperatures: Regions anticipated to have above-average temperatures include large portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest.

• Below average precipitation: The Southwest and Florida are likely to see less precipitation than usual.

• Above average precipitation: Regions predicted to experience above-average rainfall include parts of the Northwest and central U.S., including Arkansas, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New York.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac: Regional April and May forecast highlights

Here’s a summary of forecast highlights from The Old Farmer’s Almanac for April and May 2025, broken down by region.

Northeast: Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont

No major snowfall is expected. Temperatures will be above average, particularly in April, by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit. Rainfall is forecasted to be average in April and below average in May, with no major snowfall anticipated.

Atlantic Corridor: Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island, parts of Maryland and Virginia

Expect warmer temperatures, particularly in the southern part where April may see an increase of 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Rainfall is likely to be above average in April but slightly below normal in May.

Appalachian region: Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, parts of North Carolina and West Virginia

For this mountainous area, spring temperatures are expected to be slightly above average; precipitation levels may vary from slightly above average to average.

Southeast forecast: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

Temperatures are anticipated to be around average along the Carolinas’ coasts and Georgia, but may be above normal in the western parts of the region. Overall, rainfall is expected to be near normal.

Florida: The Old Farmer’s Almanac April-May forecast

The northern region of Florida will likely see warmer and wetter conditions, whereas the southern region may be cooler and drier than typical.

Lower Lakes: Michigan, parts of Illinois, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Michigan and neighboring Great Lake states should expect warmer-than-usual temperatures overall. For rainfall, expect above-normal precipitation in the eastern areas and below-normal in the western parts.

Ohio Valley: Kentucky, parts of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin

The start of April will bring below-normal temperatures and precipitation to much of Kentucky, southern Illinois, Indiana, and nearby areas, but near-normal conditions elsewhere in the region. In May, the entire area will see above-normal temperatures and rainfall.

Deep South: Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, part of Georgia

After experiencing normal temperatures in April, this region will turn warmer-than-average in May. Overall, wetter conditions are expected, especially in the southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Upper Midwest: Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Michigan

Look forward to significantly warmer temperatures (approximately 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average) with varying precipitation patterns – drier in the north and wetter in the south.

Heartland: Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, plus parts of Nebraska and South Dakota

Spring is predicted to be warm, especially in the northern regions, with temperatures expected to be 3 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the average in April, along with lower than usual rainfall. Hot and dry conditions may persist throughout the summer.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast for April-May in Oklahoma and Texas

April starts out with lower than average temperatures, but warmer weather is anticipated for May. Rainfall amounts are expected to be slightly below average to around normal.

High Plains: Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and parts of Kansas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma

The Plains will see temperatures ranging from normal to warm, particularly in the North where April temperatures are forecast to be 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average. Rainfall will be below average in the North while the South will likely experience above-average precipitation.

Intermountain: Idaho, Nevada, Utah, parts of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming, and New Mexico

For April, temperatures will be warmer than average by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit, but May is expected to be 3 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average. Overall, rainfall will be higher than normal.

Desert Southwest: Arizona, New Mexico, parts of Texas, Nevada, and California

The desert regions of New Mexico, Arizona, and southeastern California will have cooler temperatures than usual, along with slightly above-average rainfall.

Pacific Northwest: Oregon, Washington, California

Temperatures along the coast will be higher than average by 3 degrees Fahrenheit in April, but are expected to fall below average in May. Conditions will likely be a bit drier than what is typically experienced.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast for April-May in the Pacific Southwest (California)

In April, temperatures are set to be above average but are predicted to drop below average in May. The northern part of California should expect below-average rainfall, while the southern areas may see higher than typical precipitation.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast for April-May in Alaska

Overall, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast for April-May in Hawaii

Normal temperatures are anticipated in the western region of Hawaii, but warmer conditions are expected in the east, along with wetter weather statewide.

Contributors: Janson McNair and John Tufts, YSL News Network.

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