WASHINGTON − A looming government shutdown could significantly disrupt the transition to President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, impacting federal agencies as they prepare for the January 20 changeover, experts and a senior White House aide warned.

The intricate process of transferring control of the federal government from the Democratic to the Republican party may come to a standstill if Congress fails to approve funding following Trump’s and his advisor Elon Musk’s move to block a bipartisan budget deal. The House of Representatives subsequently rejected an alternative proposal.

A government shutdown would hinder various essential functions, including processing security clearances and producing identification badges for Trump’s incoming team.

“There has never been a shutdown during a transition like this. If it happens and lasts for an extended period, the chaos will only increase,” stated Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law expert at Berkeley Law School, in an interview with YSL News.

Facing the Reality

Time is already of the essence for Trump’s transition team.

They only signed a memorandum with the Biden administration in late November, whereas it is standard for transitions to begin in September, even before the new president is elected. This agreement allows for background checks on crucial personnel and enables Trump’s teams to begin assessing their future offices.

Should a shutdown occur at midnight Friday, Trump’s transition operations won’t completely halt.

Senators may still be able to review the nominations for Trump’s Cabinet.

Trump’s inauguration will proceed as scheduled on January 20, as mandated by the Constitution. However, encountering a shutdown during this critical transition stage is unprecedented, posing new challenges that the executive and legislative branches have not faced before.

Chemerinsky noted, “The situation’s complexity will greatly hinge on the duration of the shutdown and the available exceptions.”

This week, Trump disrupted a bipartisan spending agreement just days before funding was set to expire and the government would potentially close. A second, more limited plan negotiated with House leaders was rejected by over 30 Republicans.

Elon Musk, one of Trump’s prominent associates, suggested through social media that Congress should keep the government closed until Trump assumes office next month. Some Republican hardliners in the House backed this notion.

A prolonged shutdown would have severe implications, affecting taxpayer dollars and the daily lives of citizens. Legal analysts warned that it would obstruct an orderly transition of power.

No comment was available from a spokesperson for Trump’s transition team.

During her Friday briefing, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre affirmed that the Biden administration aims to facilitate a smooth transition for Trump, but that efforts would be limited in the event of a shutdown.

“This is the situation: Transition operations will face restrictions, limited only by circumstances like safeguarding human life or property,” she explained. “We are striving for a seamless handover, but the decision to continue the transition lies with Republicans in Congress.”

“A smooth transition of power is possible, provided they cease their threats.”

“A shutdown,” Jean-Pierre remarked.

Rushed Timelines

Transition preparations between administrations extend far beyond simple introductions or showing new staff where to get coffee. These include critical briefings on national security issues, insights on interacting with state government agencies, and explanations of how federal grants function and what regulations are under consideration.

During a shutdown, furloughed federal employees would be unavailable to assist Trump’s transition teams, making it tough for the many staff members entering the administration to get ready for their new tasks. Absentee workers would not have the authorization to answer calls or emails either.

The federal office spaces assigned for Trump’s transition teams might also be restricted to non-essential staff during this time.

“There are comprehensive binders prepared for incoming personnel. There are discussions scheduled for nominees. Transition team members also receive briefings,” noted Michael Morley, a law professor at Florida State University, who had prior experience at the Pentagon during Barack Obama’s transition.

“The less time available to gather and process this crucial information, the tougher the situation will be for the new administration once they take office,” he added.

Current staff within each federal agency began their preparation many months ahead to guarantee a seamless transition; however, this information must be conveyed within a few short weeks.

If current employees are furloughed during a government shutdown, “it would jeopardize and slow down the transition process, likely impacting the new administration’s team’s ability to quickly adapt and start working effectively come Inauguration Day,” Morley stated.

Is the Delay Significant?

Thousands of new staffers will require key cards, ID badges, security clearances, and background checks just to step into their offices on day one.

“Acquiring necessary job clearances and getting people settled into their roles is essentially paused,” Elaine Kamarck, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and former White House staffer, shared with YSL News.

These delays could lead to severe ramifications.

The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, which investigated why the federal government was unprepared for the 9/11 attacks, pointed to delays in confirming and orienting national security officials due to the controversial aftermath of the 2000 election as a key reason for the failure to recognize the threat in time.

Will the Senate Process Nominees?

Senate committees are expected to initiate confirmation hearings for Trump’s nominees, starting with those nominated for Cabinet positions, right after returning on Jan. 3. The control of the Senate will transition from Democrats to Republicans.

Despite a shutdown, Congress can still function, although most of the attention tends to gravitate towards reopening negotiations. Committees are allowed to conduct confirmation hearings, and the entire Senate is able to vote on Trump’s nominees.

An FBI representative mentioned that the FBI’s security division operates as an essential service, thus background checks will proceed uninterrupted.

Implications for the Inauguration

The inauguration will still take place, although its execution might undergo some adjustments.

The inauguration on Jan. 20 is coordinated by both the newly elected president’s inaugural committee, responsible for organizing events like the parade and inaugural balls, as well as the federal government, which manages logistics such as security, the construction of the platform where the president and distinguished guests will stand during the ceremony, and the process of moving the new president and their family into the White House.

Security for inaugural events will be provided by the federal government, regardless of the specific plans in place, noted David Super, a law professor at Georgetown University and a congressional expert.

According to YSL News, while the inaugural procedure is set to proceed, there may be less fanfare than usual if a government shutdown occurs.

Super remarked, “The celebrations might be a bit shortened, which indicates that if the government shutdown extends into January, Mr. Trump could have reasons to expedite a resolution.”

Kamarck noted that the bulk of the preparations is handled by the inaugural committee, so the impact of a shutdown is expected to be minimal.

She added, “Many individuals involved in fundraising and organizing events are not on government payroll and will continue their work.”

The Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies, responsible for organizing the congressional luncheon honoring the new president as well as the inauguration and swearing-in ceremony at the Capitol, anticipates that its functions will carry on even with a shutdown.

Eliza Duckworth, a spokesperson for the committee, expressed, “A government shutdown this close to the Inauguration would be quite unfortunate and without precedent.”

Nevertheless, she mentioned that the committee is committed to supporting the “peaceful transfer of power.”